Key investment points
Risks fall gradually, and the market is expected to restart at the bottom in spring. From the perspective of overseas environment, the expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and table contraction are heating up, and more countries begin to gradually accelerate the withdrawal from monetary easing policy, superimposing the emotional impact of Ukraine's geopolitics, which has exacerbated the recent volatility of overseas markets. For the A-share market, the spillover of the Fed's tightening policy to China is limited. In addition, the dislocation of the Sino US financial cycle does not necessarily promote the withdrawal of foreign capital. The tone of China's steady growth policy is clear, and Chinese assets are still attractive in the world. In China, the subsequent overweight of the policy remains to be seen after the interest rate cut is implemented as scheduled. The seasonal effect of external shocks superimposed on the fall of investor sentiment on the eve of the Spring Festival has caused a significant adjustment in the recent market. Looking forward to the future, from the perspective of liquidity, the LPR reduction on January 20 is by no means the end point. With the further development of monetary policy, the wide currency will be gradually transmitted to the wide credit, and the market liquidity is expected to improve. From the perspective of corporate profits, the early market structure has shifted from the valuation repair of traditional industries to the valuation switch of profit expectation improvement industries, and then to the valuation improvement of high boom tracks. This logic has been perfectly interpreted by the market. With the continuous narrowing of ppi-cpi scissors, the profits of enterprises in the middle and lower reaches will be further improved. From the perspective of risk appetite, with the gradual landing of external shocks such as the rising expectation of the Federal Reserve's table contraction and the intensification of geopolitical friction, the sustained force of fiscal and monetary policy under the tone of "steady growth" is expected to further boost the market's risk appetite. The spring market is expected to restart at the bottom.
Standing at the current time point, the spring market is expected to restart at the bottom. During the window period of the pre policy in the first half of the year, the growth sector whose valuation has been digested to a certain extent is expected to usher in new opportunities under the correction of liquidity expectations; In the environment of misplaced monetary policies between China and the United States and rising uncertainty of global economic policies, the valuation is relatively reasonable, and the consumption style with the most certainty of profit recovery will still have a strong defensive attribute.
Focus on four investment clues:
1) under the situation of gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, the track leaders such as food and beverage, medicine and social services are expected to usher in the repair market;
2) the rising prices of essential commodities in the textile industry and aquaculture industry are expected to be accompanied by the rising prices of essential commodities in the boom;
3) pay attention to the pull of China's fiscal stimulus on new and old infrastructure sectors, especially energy infrastructure and information infrastructure in new infrastructure;
4) layout the growth leader of the track to maintain high prosperity in the next two years, including new energy vehicle industry chain, green power and military industry.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation in developed economies has developed more than expected, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has tightened more than expected, and China's industrial regulation policy has exceeded expectations.
