Strategic view in February:
Strategically, 2022 will be a compressed version of 2018-2019. The first half of the year is similar to 2018 and the second half is similar to 2019. Strategic problems (declining performance growth and cooling fund issuance) cannot be solved quickly by reducing reserve requirements and interest rates. The tactical rebound will occur after the Spring Festival. In February, the centralized performance of the annual report and the first quarterly report has not yet come. The worry about the performance of semiconductor, new energy and other tracks in 2022 will come to an end temporarily. At the same time, the period from the Spring Festival to march is the highest time for residents’ capital activity over the years.
In terms of industry allocation, the undervalued sectors related to steady growth will continue to generate excess returns. Looking back on q2-q4 in 2014 and q3-q4 in 2018, regardless of the effect of steady growth, infrastructure, real estate and banks have excess returns within six months after steady growth. The index will rebound monthly in February, and growth stocks with more adjustments during the rebound will also perform, but the probability is the monthly oversold rebound. The overall value in the first half of the year is partial, and the growth in the second half of the year is likely to return in an all-round way. Allocation suggestions: (1) generally, financial real estate can advance, retreat and defend in the middle and later stages of economic downturn, and the steady growth will be gradually strengthened, which can continue to exceed the allocation until Q2 in 2022; (2) Food and beverage, home appliances, computers, media and other sectors with poor performance this year are in the process of quarterly rebound; (3) The supply and demand cycle of military industry, hotel, aviation and other industries is independent, and it can be paid attention to all year in 2022.
In February, the “top ten gold stocks” of Cinda securities were: Yankuang energy (energy), CNOOC (petrochemical), Jinke services (real estate), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (metal & new materials), Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) (chemical industry), China stock market news (non bank & small and medium cap), Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp.Ltd(300726) (military industry), Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) (food), Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) (Communication), Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) (Dianxin).
Risk factors: the decline of real estate exceeded expectations, the market fluctuated violently, and the black swan incident of individual stocks.
