Market outlook in February and recommendation of top ten gold stocks
February 5, The relevant person in charge of the national development and Reform Commission said "The policy force should be moderately advanced. There are many uncertain factors in the first quarter of this year. We should move the policy force point forward appropriately, speed up the introduction of a series of policies and measures to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, and timely study and put forward targeted measures to revitalize industrial operation. We should moderately advance infrastructure investment and strive to form more physical workload in the first quarter." January data showed that the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points month on month; The PMI of non manufacturing industry was 51.1%, down 1.6 percentage points. At present, the economy is still facing triple pressure, and steady growth will be the main theme throughout the year.
From historical experience, the overall rising probability of A-Shares after the Spring Festival is high, and the calendar effect of "spring agitation" is obvious. Through statistics on the rise and fall of major indexes after the Spring Festival holiday in the past decade, it is found that one week after the Spring Festival, the rise probability of Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index are 80%, 90% and 90% respectively, and the average rise and fall are 0.91%, 1.12% and 4.16% respectively. One month after the Spring Festival, the rise probability of Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index were 80%, 70% and 70% respectively, with an average rise and fall of 3.37%, 3.74% and 8.62% respectively. Overall, the weekly and monthly rise probability of the main broad-based indexes after the Spring Festival are more than 70%, and the average rise of the gem is significantly ahead of Shanghai and Shenzhen.
Before the Spring Festival, some investors holding money for the holiday were not willing to participate. Combined with the rising expectation of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and the disturbance of regional events, the overall market volatility intensified. The Shanghai stock index fell 4.57% and the gem fell 4.14% this week. During the Spring Festival, the risk sentiment in the peripheral markets was released to a certain extent. After the festival, Hong Kong stocks took the lead in opening. The Hang Seng Index rose 3.24% on February 4. At present, the negative factors are gradually digested. We believe that the market pessimism is expected to be repaired, the risk appetite is gradually improved, and A-Shares are expected to usher in the "year of the tiger".
From the perspective of allocation, we recommend two main lines: steady growth + dilemma reversal:
First, steady growth will remain the main line of recent allocation. Recently, senior officials have repeatedly mentioned that fiscal policy should be strengthened in advance and infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance. At present, China's economy is in the stage of "after the mobilization of steady growth and monetary easing, and the implementation of steady growth policy is effective and before the end of the economy". Therefore, steady growth will still be the main allocation line in the near future, It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of new and old infrastructure and consumer industries that expand domestic demand: pay attention to the building materials, household appliances, real estate and other industries in the infrastructure and real estate chain, pay attention to the energy transformation, high-end manufacturing, digital economy and other directions with dominant relative profit growth in the stage of steady growth and remarkable effect.
Second, global economic activities have gradually stepped out of the haze of the epidemic and paid attention to the "dilemma reversal" sector. With the increase of vaccination rate, the impact of the epidemic on the economy is decreasing marginally, the global supply impact and industrial chain may be gradually repaired, and the sectors affected by the epidemic and the obstruction of supply chain are expected to usher in a dilemma reversal. Superimposed on the continuous narrowing trend of ppi-cpi scissors difference in 2022, it is conducive to the repair and improvement of profitability of relevant sectors. It is suggested to pay attention to the direction of agriculture and animal husbandry, transportation, big finance, household appliances and so on.
Therefore, the top ten gold stock portfolios of YueKai securities in February were: Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Air China Limited(601111) , Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) , Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) .
Risk tips
China's economic recovery is less than expected, and the external environment is weaker than expected.
