Suggestions on strategic allocation in February: welcome the market of the Lunar New Year
The period from the Spring Festival to the two sessions is one of the best long window periods in the whole year. According to historical experience, February is the period with the highest yield and winning rate of A-Shares in a year, and this period often corresponds to the Spring Festival to the eve of the two sessions - on the one hand, there is a demand for funds to return to the market after the long Spring Festival holiday, on the other hand, it comes from the expectation of policy warming brought by the two sessions. Since 2010, the rise probability of the all a index between the Spring Festival and the two sessions has reached more than 70%, and the average and median of the rise and fall have exceeded 2.5%; At the same time, A-Shares rose one month before the Spring Festival in 2013, 2019 and 2020. If compared with the decline in January 2022, excluding relevant years, the probability of rise of the broad-based index will reach 100%.
Looking back, there is no need to be pessimistic in the equity market. The market of the lunar year of the tiger may open. First, recent fluctuations in US bond interest rates have converged, overseas risk appetite has stabilized and warmed up, and peripheral shocks have been basically released; Secondly, with the recent interest rate and reserve requirement cuts by the central bank, macro liquidity has been further abundant; The amount of public offering has stabilized and rebounded since mid January, and the lack of incremental funds in the short term is expected to be alleviated; Moreover, with the recent decline in the interest rates of the stock market and treasury bonds, the equity risk premium of the broad-based index has risen to + 1 times the standard deviation area, and the cost performance of stock bond allocation has gradually emerged; Finally, historical experience shows that the market risk appetite has improved significantly from the Spring Festival to the two sessions, and the overall performance of A-Shares is not poor.
Core conclusions and strategic suggestions: in the short-term style or entering the balance period, high and undervalued values are expected to usher in a resonant rebound. In the medium term, steady growth is still the main line of the quarterly level. The market of the lunar year is arranged around three clues: 1) credit conditions have stabilized in a real sense, m1-ppi continues to repair upward, and there is room for further easing of policies, Steady growth is still the largest beta main line in Q1. High quality banks, state-owned enterprise developers and buildings / building materials are recommended; 2) After the festival, the market risk appetite is expected to improve, and the short-term dimension recommends the communication and computer driven by the concept of digital economy in the direction of new infrastructure development; 3) Home appliances with reversed upstream costs and airports benefiting from the opening-up policy.
February gold stock portfolio
Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) : "dual control of energy consumption" long-term control, actively laying the production line of recycled aluminum capacity, and the cost balance of raw material end can be expected.
Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) : strengthen the logic of lithium resource protection and supply, and be the pioneer of lithium extraction in Tibet's Salt Lake, with the ability of regional resource integration and capacity expansion.
Satellite chemistry: ethylene and new material projects are put into operation, opening up growth space and raising the profit center to a new level.
China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) : the supply side reform of the industry has accelerated, and the leading value of central enterprises needs to be revalued.
Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) : wind power machine is the leader, and the company's performance is growing at a high speed.
China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) : market seedlings and high-end chemical drugs cooperate in large quantities to support high performance growth.
Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) : the second largest liquor enterprise in the province, benefiting from consumption upgrading, is expected to make a good start in the short term and increase year-on-year. In the long term, the company's reform and implementation and the development of products are secondary high-end.
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) : sujiu is the leader, deeply benefiting from consumption upgrading. Product upgrading is on the way, and employee stock ownership strengthens development confidence.
Yealink Network Technology Co.Ltd(300628) : unified communication leader, the bottom of performance valuation is reversed.
Westone Information Industry Inc(002268) : the password business benefits from the high prosperity of the information innovation process. The first order of data security business is implemented, and it is expected to increase rapidly in the future.
Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) : the income is expected to increase significantly in 22 years, the fundamentals are more certain, and intermediary businesses such as wealth management open up room for growth.
Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) : actively promote marketization and become the most growing state-owned bank.
Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) : favorable policies drive the beta repair, the gross profit margin of leading land acquisition rebounds, and the financing end benefits.
Risk tips: 1. The epidemic situation is out of control; 2. A sharp recession; 3. The policy has changed more than expected.
