A-share strategy: it is not pessimistic about spring. February may be slightly better than January, and the credit data is very critical.
The credit and social finance data for January 2022 will be released immediately after the Spring Festival holiday. The credit and social finance data at the bottom of the cycle is very critical. If the credit data is good, for example, the growth rate of M1 continues to pick up, and the new RMB loans and social finance exceed expectations. Then there is no need to be too pessimistic about the equity market. Conversely, the market may need more time to restore confidence.
In addition, the turbulence in overseas markets is also one of the key points of impact. The Fed's interest rate increase can almost certainly occur in March, and the market still needs time to digest the impact. The market turbulence from February to march is most likely to be brought by overseas markets.
To sum up, we are confident that the traditional economy will recover in 2022. Spring is a time window that can be expected. Investors are advised to pay attention to the opportunities of SSE 50 and CSI 300 and be patient.
Global strategy: the epidemic is still the biggest interference.
The development of the epidemic still determines the trend of most asset prices in the world.
Investment strategy: we can consider paying attention to the left layout opportunities brought by new epidemic variants.
Risk tip: the development of the epidemic has exceeded expectations, and China's foreign economic policies have changed.
