Why pay attention to the relationship between the real estate industry and the post cycle sector?
In 2021, real estate sales continued to decline, with double-digit negative growth in a single month for five consecutive months. At the same time, real estate credit events continued to ferment in the second half of the year. The overall pressure on the post cycle sector of real estate was under pressure, and the performance of the post cycle sector was significantly affected by the overall environment of the real estate industry. With the marginal relaxation signal of the real estate policy in the fourth quarter, the stock price began to repair gradually. How to interpret this round of market in the follow-up attracted market attention.
Fundamentals of completion impact, sales and valuation of policy impact
Review the history and explore the impact of real estate completion, real estate sales and real estate policies on the fundamentals and valuation of major industries in the post real estate cycle. We believe that 1) there are differences in the transmission time of post completion cycle fundamentals for different industries; 2) The impact of sales and policies on post cycle valuation. The inflection point of short-term valuation generally corresponds to the introduction of major real estate policies. In the medium and long term, valuation is related to the trend of sales growth.
Forecast: the completion will increase steadily and the policy margin will be better in 2022
In the history of resumption, the starting point of the slowdown of real estate policy generally corresponds to the bottom of real estate sales, and the sales growth rate has been negative continuously, such as the fourth quarter of 2021. The economic work conference in December 2021 expressed the real estate as "meeting the reasonable demand and promoting the healthy development of the industry". Since then, there have been a series of marginal positive policies on the capital and demand sides. At present, there is still pressure on the real estate sales demand, and it is expected that the follow-up administrative policies will be adjusted according to the "urban implementation policies".
The completion in 2021 shows a positive trend of recovery. Due to the uncompleted large number of houses sold in the early stage and the "guaranteed delivery" policy, the completion end in 2022 is resilient and is expected to grow steadily.
Investment suggestions:
Household
(1) the white horse leader Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) will continue to be optimistic in the medium and long term. The leader has prominent leading advantages, its own growth has strong certainty, and the logic of share promotion is more smooth. Among them, Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) software + customization integration, strong systematic sales ability, customer unit value driven growth in the same store, upgraded from wholesale to retail mode, pe21x in 22 years; Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) the whole house is advancing at a high speed, with outstanding advantages in CAXA information system and supply chain, strong channel dominance and strong growth in the same store. It has been pe24x for 22 years.
(2) this round of recommendations focuses on the investment opportunities of elastic targets with high growth and undervalued value. The most recommended business inflection point is Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) . The company's whole customization strategy promotes the retail customer unit price, customer flow and conversion rate. It is expected to complete the reassembly of 700-800 stores in 22 years, improve management and 315 new playing methods are expected, and the PE in 22 years is only 16x. It is recommended to pay attention to Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) , the high-quality operation of company E, the smooth entry of stressless into the Chinese market, the orderly expansion of img's key customers, the strength of China's Qumei's direct and innovative business, the scale effect + decreasing interest expenses drive the profit, and the 22-year PE is 13X. At the same time, it is recommended to pay attention to Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) company, which is the core growth target of the mattress gold track, and the independent brand retail channel & brand marketing, The PE of 22 years is 18x.
Household appliances
(1) white power: focus on the high-end and scenario layout in China, fully enter the harvest season overseas, improve the expense rate and realize Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) of profitability (PE is 16x in 2022); Pay attention to Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) (PE is 10x in 2022) related to central air conditioning, which benefits from the improvement of fine decoration penetration rate and consumer awareness.
(2) kitchen electricity: pay attention to the Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) of the stable growth of traditional categories and the entry of emerging categories into the high growth track (PE is 15x in 2022); Pay attention to Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) with mature online and offline models, fast growth of dealers and progress in the layout of the first and second tier markets; Focus on Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) with management change and perfect product layout.
Property management
The valuation and repair of the property management sector can be expected, and the long-term development prospect is broad. Considering the possible risks in the process of industry restoration in 2022, we pay attention to the property companies whose affiliated real estate enterprises are high credit state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises, poly property (22x PE in 2022), Jinke service (13X PE in 2022) and Xuhui Yongsheng life (25X PE in 2022).
Consumer building materials
Pay attention to the production capacity and channel leadership, and benefit from the Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) increment that may be brought by the waterproof industry (PE is 24x in 2022).
Risk tips:
The epidemic situation is repeated, the relaxation of real estate policy is less than expected, and the demand is less than expected
