Key investment points:
LPR quotation in February remained unchanged
The national interbank lending center authorized by the people’s Bank of China announced that on February 21, 2022, the quoted interest rate (LPR) of the loan market was: 1-year LPR was 3.70%, previously 3.70%, 5-year and above LPR was 4.60%, previously 4.60%. Previously, in December 2021 and January 2022, the one-year LPR decreased for two consecutive months, by 5 basis points and 10 basis points respectively; In January 2022, LPR over 5 years decreased by 5 basis points.
Overall, although the quotation is flat, it still meets market expectations. On February 15, the central bank continued to make MLF at parity, and the MLF quotation remained unchanged, which pointed to the high probability of LPR this month or remained stable. The total amount of social finance data in January was significantly higher than expected, superimposed with a series of measures taken by the central bank to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates since the second half of last year, and the financing supply and demand of the real economy were booming under the tone of “steady growth”. However, there is still room for improvement in the structure. In January, the medium and long-term loans of residents increased by 742.4 billion yuan. In absolute terms, the data in January is significantly lower than the 944.8 billion yuan in 2021 and slightly lower than the 749.1 billion yuan in the same period in 2020, which is verified by the weak real estate sales in January. On January 30, 2022, the transaction area of commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities decreased by 39.04% year-on-year, lower than the transaction area in the same period from 2018 to 2021, which is weaker than the seasonality as a whole. However, it is expected that with the recovery of real estate financing policy, real estate is expected to gradually step out of the bottom.
In the follow-up, under the main tone of “stable growth”, the continued development of infrastructure and the issuance of special bonds may still be matched by loose monetary and credit. It does not rule out the possibility of interest rate reduction in the follow-up, but the space may be relatively limited.
The six major banks cut the mortgage interest rate in Guangzhou from February 21
According to a reporter from China Central Television, Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) , Bank Of China Limited(601988) , China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) , Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) six major banks have reduced the housing loan interest rate in Guangzhou since the 21st. Among them, the preferential approval interest rate of the first house is reduced from the previous LPR + 100bp (5.6%) to LPR + 80bp (5.4%), and the preferential approval interest rate of the second house is reduced from the previous LPR + 120bp (5.8%) to LPR + 100bp (5.6%).
On the whole, since the Symposium of the CBRC in late October last year mentioned “implementing development loans and ensuring rigid demand credit” to maintain market stability, the five-year LPR was lowered in January this year, and then in early February, the central bank and the CBRC made it clear that the loans related to affordable rental housing projects were not included in the concentration management of real estate loans. Recently, the real estate financing sector continued to reduce the proportion of down payment and other favorable signals, and the real estate financing sector continued to reduce the proportion of down payment and return
