Industry configuration this week:
Over allocation: real estate, communication, computer, national defense and military industry, banking, electronics and non-ferrous metals
Standard configuration: basic chemical industry, household appliances, food and beverage, textile and clothing, light industry manufacturing, medicine and biology, public utilities, comprehensive, non bank finance, automobile, mechanical equipment, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, environmental protection, beauty care
Low allocation: steel, building materials, social services
Performance of industry allocation last week: the absolute return of the portfolio year to date is 0.48%, compared with the excess return of CSI 300 – 0.63%
Valuation: CSI 300iape is close to the 50th percentile, and CSI 300pb is below the 40th percentile. Shanghai IAPE is above the 30th percentile, Shanghai Pb is above the 20th percentile, Shanghai 50iape is close to the 60th percentile, and Shanghai 50pb is close to the 40th percentile line. IAPE on GEM fell below the 60th percentile and Pb on GEM fell above the 75th percentile.
The allocation value of stocks relative to bonds is still dominant. Shenwan industry fell more or rose less, among which power equipment, non-ferrous metals, medicine and biology, beauty care and architectural decoration ranked first. Combined with Pb and expected roe, industrial metals, consumer electronics, miniled, phosphorus chemical industry, carbon neutralization and other sectors have better cost performance. Combined with PEG and expected g, the prosperity of network security, nuclear power, lithium battery, photovoltaic, cro and aerospace equipment is better.
Money & Interest Rate: monetary policy remains stable and loose
Upstream
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated and the international oil price fluctuated at a high level
The price of thermal coal fell slightly
Aluminum prices fluctuated at a high level, and lithium prices continued to rise
Iron ore prices fell and fluctuated
Midstream
Steel prices fell after continuous growth
Power equipment rose significantly and is expected to exceed expectations in the first quarter
The demand starts gradually and the cement market heats up
The downstream resumed work one after another, and the price of soda ash rose slightly
In January, the price of express delivery increased month on month, and the freight rate of centralized transportation continued to fall
Downstream
The policy of “stabilizing real estate” has been strengthened
In January, the domestic sales of air conditioners were weak and the export demand was stable
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) personnel changes, pay attention to follow-up development
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Electronics: the growth power of new energy vehicles is strong, and automotive electronics is booming
Computer: “counting from the east to the west” was launched in an all-round way to promote the development of digital economy
Media: release of the “14th five year plan” for the development of Chinese TV dramas
Risk tips: macroeconomic failure to meet the expected risk, monetary policy tightening beyond expectations, certificate risk and bond risk research, research, supervision, reporting and reporting policy exceeding the expected risk, industry prosperity failure to meet the expected risk and stagflation risk
