US monetary policy: raising interest rates: after the announcement of the minutes of the FOMC meeting in January, the market Hawks' expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike fell rapidly. According to the observation of federal funds rate futures, the Fed interest rate fell from 1.595% to 1.495% in 22022; CME's fed observed that the probability of raising interest rates by 50bp in March also fell from 94% to 22%. Most Fed officials are still cautious about monetary policy. Scale reduction: at present, the market's expectation of scale reduction is greatly advanced. According to the meeting minutes, this scale reduction will reduce MBS bonds on a large scale. Previously, Fed officials mentioned that the proportion of the Fed's balance sheet in GDP is more appropriate at about 20%, which is currently 35%. The balance sheet of the Federal Reserve released on February 9, 2022 shows that the reduction of US bonds is mainly short-term bonds, and the increment of long-term bonds is still large.
US economic data: the month on month growth rate of retail sales in January increased unexpectedly, with the market expectation of - 1%, and the actual published value of 3.75%, much higher than the market expectation of - 2.54%. The rapid recovery of retail data also indicates that the epidemic situation in the United States has gradually improved, residents have resumed normal travel again, and commodity sales have risen rapidly again. In terms of sub items, sports goods and furniture still have negative growth year-on-year, while the growth rate of gas stations and food and beverage Tongbei has accelerated, which also indicates the improvement of the follow-up epidemic situation, allowing most people to gradually return to normal travel.
Global market: last week, the main trading line was the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The demand for risk aversion in the market increased sharply, the stock market fell sharply, and the commodities rose in an all-round way. 1) Stock market: the three major US stock indexes fell across the board, of which the NASDAQ index was the largest, reaching 4.28%, the S & P index fell 2.99% and the Dow index fell 1.83%. The three major indexes of European stock market also experienced a sharp decline; Germany fell the most, down 2.48%, FTSE 100 fell 1.92% and France fell 1.17%. It was not easy for Asian stock markets to fall, with Hang Seng down 2.32%, Nikkei down 2.07% and South Korea down 0.12%. Among emerging markets, affected by the conflict, Russia's stock market plunged 4.32%, Brazil fell 0.61% and India's market fell slightly by 0.55%. 2) Bond market: the high yield of ten-year US bonds fell back, breaking through 2% and falling to 1.92%. The term premium of 2-10-year US bonds expanded slightly, down 3bp to 0.45%; German bond yields fell after rising sharply, unchanged from last week, and Japan's 10-year bond yields basically operated between 0.22% - 0.23%. 3) Foreign exchange: the US dollar index basically maintained a slight rise of 0.07% and finally closed at 96.1. The Australian dollar rose sharply by 0.74%, the euro fell slightly by 0.22%, the yen fell slightly by 0.42%, the British rust rose slightly by 0.21% and the RMB fell slightly by 0.46%. 42 commodities: in terms of precious metals, gold rose sharply by 3.41% to close at about US $1893.6. Silver rose sharply, as high as 3.82%, to close at US $23.77/trading division. LME copper rose slightly by 1.27% to close at US $9955, while US crude oil continued to decline by 3.6% to close at US $90.52.
