Looking back on Monday’s A-share market, the opening price of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was mixed, the pattern of early differentiation was obvious, the authorized heavy stocks were dragged down, and the performance of the Shanghai index was weak. It always operated below the closing point of last Friday. The Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index rose rapidly, followed by the weakness of the Shanghai index; Due to the active performance of subject stocks, the index showed signs of upward attack in the afternoon, especially the Shenzhen Composite Index turned red smoothly in the late trading.
As stated by Guosheng securities, recently, due to the disturbance of peripheral markets and the pressure on China’s economic growth, the volume of A-share market can not be effectively enlarged. The structural market characteristics under the stock game are obvious , and the probability of small shock consolidation in the short term is large, while the trend investment opportunities still need to be continuously improved in terms of policy and capital.
In the medium and long term, the fundamentals determined by performance growth will inevitably bring valuation regression to individual stocks that fluctuate in the short term. for sectors with policy support directions such as scientific and technological innovation, energy revolution and digital economy, we can pay attention to the fermentation of relevant topics before the “two sessions” will be held in March, or the direction of the main capital focus game .
At present, the concept of “counting from the east to the west” is strong, and the theme emotional premium is very high, but the short-term speculation characteristics of the sector are obvious. After maintaining a strong position for two consecutive trading days, there is a high probability that it will face differentiation. It is advisable to select individual stocks and do not blindly pursue the rise. In terms of operation, should see more and move less, focus on low absorption, grasp the layout opportunity of traditional infrastructure, new energy, digital economy and other sectors, or make a good choice under the current market .
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that on Monday, the market fluctuated sideways, and the market profit-making effect was good. In particular, the concept of “counting from the east to the west” continued to perform strongly, driving market sentiment, with a slight net outflow of funds from the north. However, the overall market remained resilient. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, pay attention to the release of energy and the rotation of sectors , In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, building materials, building decoration, steel, TMT and other industries.
Macroscopically, Huaxin Securities said that the outline of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting did not release more hawkish signals, but in view of the current geopolitical risks and the increasing inflationary pressure, it is not appropriate to underestimate the intensity of this round of Fed tightening; The European Central Bank is likely to raise interest rates this year and gradually move towards the normalization of monetary policy, but it will not determine the policy adjustment framework too soon; the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has resumed, and the global risk aversion market is heating up. In the follow-up, we should pay attention to the results of the meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia and the United States .
It is worth mentioning that Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) believes that despite the differentiation of China US economy and policies, the short-term trend of US stocks may still be an important external factor affecting the A-share market. at present, the core factors affecting US stocks are gradually changing from policy (fed interest rate increase and contraction table) and incident (Russia Ukraine conflict) to performance .
In terms of future market, will there be an independent market for a shares? Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) further analysis, resumed the correlation between the Chinese and American stock markets since 2010. Most of the time, the correlation coefficients of the two are positive, that is, the two markets show a strong trend of rising and falling together . Historically, the differentiation of China US economy and policies mainly occurred from the end of 2014 to the end of 2015 and from the second quarter of 2018 to the end of 2018. However, there was no obvious differentiation between A-Shares and U.S. stocks in these two periods, but the increase in the bull market of A-Shares in the first half of 2015 was greater than that of U.S. stocks.
The agency also pointed out that from defensive to offensive stage, A-Shares may usher in a small and medium-sized growth moment . Under the defensive idea, the undervalued value is preferred, but in the subsequent context of “worry free inside and trouble free outside”, when A-Shares change from defensive to offensive, the undervalued value sector is difficult to have relative returns, even the infrastructure sector with stable growth attribute. Because historically, the relative return of the infrastructure sector is not strongly related to the industry roe. Moreover, the increase in the growth rate of infrastructure investment is also difficult to be reflected in the roe of listed companies. One belt, one road, is the main reason for the huge excess revenue in the history of the infrastructure sector. The inflection point of the growth curve of the new energy sector is still difficult to see in the short term, and the medium and long-term logic is difficult to prove. The sector continues to adjust under the current negative capital feedback, and may usher in a deterministic recovery after the landing of performance uncertainty.
In addition, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that at present, the capacity of the A-share market is slightly insufficient and the style is not clear. The impact of the news on the performance of the sector is more obvious and frequent. We believe that this is mainly because investors have great differences in their judgment on the future market trend. in the context of the continuous rise of overseas uncertainty risks, China’s continued easing and steady growth and hedging against the downward pressure of the economy, we suggest paying attention to the regression of the epidemic disturbance and some undervalued sectors expected to be repaired in the adjustment of steady growth in the short term, and focusing on value blue chips with better defense ability in the downward economic environment.
In terms of operation strategy, the organization further analyzed, (1) focused on the national defense and military industry sector . At present, the probability of further deterioration of geographical conflicts is relatively limited, but under the background of the big country game, it may continue to ferment in the short term. As far as China is concerned, the proportion of military spending in GDP is relatively low. The construction of a strong army during the 14th five year plan period is expected to promote the prosperity of sub sectors such as core components, new information equipment and new materials, In addition, the military industry sector has been fully adjusted recently and has a better configuration and cost performance. It is recommended to pay attention to it.
(2) focus on the concept of digital economy . The launch of the project of “counting East and counting West” may accelerate the implementation of digital economy strategy. Under the guidance of medium and long-term trend opportunities, it is suggested to focus on new infrastructure, 5g technology, industrial Internet, big data and other sectors in the short term in combination with the macro direction of cross cycle adjustment.
(3) focus on the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector . The livestock and poultry breeding sector has experienced a large degree of adjustment this week. We re emphasize that the pig industry sector may gradually enter the upward period. It is suggested to lengthen the allocation cycle, continue to pay attention to the marginal change of production capacity and intervene in time.
(4) focus on the real estate sector . The transformation of the real estate industry is a long-term trend, but the excessive pessimism of market sentiment in the short term is also not conducive to the smooth operation of macro-economy. We believe that “implementing policies due to cities” in cross cycle adjustment may be the main direction of the adjustment of the real estate industry. The short-term domestic policy is expected to accelerate the protection of market sentiment and promote the expected repair, and the current valuation level of the real estate sector is at a historically low level, It is recommended to pay attention.
In addition, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that the plight of the post epidemic era will reverse, and the performance of industries and companies will continue. There are three main aspects:
1. reverse industry under low expectation : under the steady growth policy, the real estate, real estate chain and infrastructure chain have good expectation of marginal policy throughout the year.
At the same time, the epidemic damaged sectors, mainly catering, tourism and transportation, have not recovered to the pre epidemic level, but the boom has improved to varying degrees.
2. the emergence of new themes : digital economy will be an important direction this year, and policies such as the 14th five year plan for the development of digital economy and the 14th five year plan for promoting the informatization of national government affairs have formed a direct catalyst; The intelligent penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be improved.
3. expected injection of assets such as state-owned enterprise reform : 2022 is the final year of three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform, which needs to produce results. It is worth paying attention to the investment opportunities brought by strategic restructuring, professional integration and related mergers and acquisitions, and focusing on the military industry sector with low asset securitization rate.
At the same time, undervalued banking sector also deserves attention. China’s demand for credit and financing is relatively booming. After the epidemic for two years, the quality of underlying assets will pick up, and the credit risk will continue to improve, which is positive for the banking industry.
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