Key investment points
Market review of transportation and social service industry this week
Among the 31 shenwanyi industries, the cumulative growth of social services and transportation industries this week (February 14-february 18) were - 0.33% and - 1.06% respectively, ranking 23rd and 28th respectively; The CSI 300 index rose by + 1.08%.
Among the 134 Shenwan secondary industries, this week (February 14-february 18), the cumulative growth of tourism retail, airport, hotel catering, tourism and scenic spots were + 0.0%, - 2.7%, - 3.3% and - 5.7% respectively, ranking 96, 130, 132 and 134 respectively.
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: 1) China: from February 12 to February 18, China reported a total of 295 local confirmed cases (299 last week), mainly in Liaoning Province (Huludao City and Shenyang City), Inner Mongolia (Hulunbuir City, Hohhot City and Baotou City), Jiangsu Province (Suzhou City and Nantong City), Guangxi Province (Baise City) Guangdong Province (Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Huizhou), Tianjin, Yunnan Province (Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture, Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture), Zhejiang Province (Shaoxing City); As of 15:00 on February 19, 2022, there are 74 medium and high-risk areas in China, including 2 high-risk areas (Liaoning 1 and Guangxi 1) and 72 medium risk areas (Inner Mongolia 8, Liaoning 1, Heilongjiang 5, Jiangsu 41, Guangdong 5, Guangxi 10 and Yunnan 2). 2) Global: from February 12 to February 18, about 12.82 million cases of covid-19 pneumonia were newly confirmed, with a chain comparison of - 26%; There were 69467 new deaths, a month on month increase of - 9%. 3) United States: from February 12 to February 18, about 800000 new cases were diagnosed, down 54% month on month; There were 16294 new deaths, down 7% month on month. 4) UK: from February 12 to February 18, about 330000 new cases were diagnosed, down 38% month on month; There were 1038 new deaths, down 25% month on month.
Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: as of February 18, the country has reported about 3.08 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine; About 5.58 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated every day from February 12 to February 18, an increase of 15% month on month. 2) Global: as of February 18, about 10.4 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine had been vaccinated worldwide, and about 62% of the world's population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
Airport & aviation: civil aviation passenger volume + 22% year-on-year in the 34 days before the Spring Festival Transportation
1) industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from February 14 to February 18, the daily average number of flights executed by Chinese and international routes was about 11829, an increase of 36.4% over the same period in 2021, 251% and - 24.6% respectively in 2020 and 2019, and a decrease of 3.2% over last week.
2) Spring Festival civil aviation data tracking: on the 34th day of the Spring Festival, the civil aviation passenger traffic volume was about 1.23 million, with a year-on-year growth of - 10% in 21 years, 674% in 20 years and - 34% in 19 years. 34 days before the Spring Festival transportation, the passenger transportation volume totaled about 33.01 million person times, 22% year-on-year, 20-12% year-on-year and 19-47% year-on-year.
3) aviation department: from February 14 to February 18, according to the data of flight standards, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Chunqiu, Jixiang and Huaxia were 1007, 1840, 1711, 500, 334 and 177 respectively, with the average of - 1.7%, - 5.6%, - 0.3%, - 3.2%, - 5.4% and - 5.6% respectively.
4) Air China Limited(601111) January ask and RPK increased month on month: in January, Air China ask increased by 2% year on year in 2021, decreased by 54% year on year in 2020 and 52% year on year in 2019, and increased by 10% month on month; RPK increased by 1% year-on-year in 2021, decreased by 64% year-on-year in 2020 and 2019, and increased by 4% month on month; The occupancy rate is 60%, down 0.8% year-on-year in 2021.
5) China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) January ask and RPK increased month on month: in January, China Eastern Airlines ask increased by 6% year on year in 2021, decreased by 47% year on year in 2020 and 44% year on year in 2019, and increased by 13% month on month; RPK increased by 0.4% year-on-year in 2021, decreased by 60% year-on-year in 2020 and 61% year-on-year in 2019, and increased by 7% month on month; The occupancy rate is 56%, down 3% year-on-year in 2021.
6) ask and RPK of China Southern Airlines in January increased significantly month on month: ask of China Southern Airlines in January increased by 19% year on year in 2021, decreased by 42% and 40% respectively year on year in 2020 and 2019, and increased by 15% month on month; RPK increased by 17% year-on-year in 2021, decreased by 52% year-on-year in 2020 and 53% year-on-year in 2019, and increased by 11% month on month; The occupancy rate was 63%, a year-on-year decrease of 14% in 2021.
7) the operating data of Hainan Airlines in January increased month on month: in January, HNA ask decreased by 24% year on year in 2021, 50% and 60% year on year in 2020 and 2019 respectively, and increased by 5% month on month; RPK decreased by 19% year-on-year in 2021, 53% year-on-year in 2020 and 67% year-on-year in 2019, and increased by 9% month on month; The occupancy rate is 70%, with a year-on-year increase of 5% in 2021.
8) Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) January ask and RPK increased significantly month on month: in January, the spring and autumn ask increased by 26% year on year in 2021, and - 1% and 17% year on year in 2020 and 2019 respectively, with a month on month increase of 36%; RPK increased by 27% year-on-year in 2021, decreased by 15% year-on-year in 2020 and 8% year-on-year in 2019, and increased by 29% month on month; The occupancy rate was 71%, a year-on-year decrease of 12% in 2021.
9) Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) January operating data increased significantly month on month: in January, Jixiang ask decreased by 4% year on year in 2021, 17% year on year in 2020 and 13% year on year in 2019, and increased by 20% month on month; RPK decreased by 10% year-on-year in 2021, 31% year-on-year in 2020 and 34% year-on-year in 2019, and increased by 13% month on month; The occupancy rate was 61%, down 13% year-on-year in 2021.
10) Airport: from February 14 to February 18, according to the data of flight standards, the average daily take-off and landing sorties of Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, capital airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) were 414, 325, 296, 519 and 338 respectively, up from - 7%, 13.4%, 4.4%, - 5.6% and - 8.7% respectively last week.
11) operation data of capital airport in January 2022: take-off and landing sorties: 21514 take-off and landing sorties of capital airport in January, an increase of 9% year-on-year in 2021, and a decrease of 54% and 59% year-on-year in 2020 and 2019 respectively. Passenger throughput: the passenger throughput of capital airport in January was about 1.852 million, an increase of 13% year-on-year in 2021, and a decrease of 75% and 79% year-on-year in 2020 and 2019 respectively; Among them, the passenger throughput of Chinese routes was 1.826 million, an increase of 13% year-on-year in 2021, and a decrease of 65% and 71% year-on-year in 2020 and 2019 respectively.
12) Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) January 2022 business data: take-off and landing sorties: Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) January take-off and landing sorties 29735, an increase of 14% year-on-year in 2021, and a decrease of 31% and 32% year-on-year in 2020 and 2019 respectively. Passenger throughput: Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) January passenger throughput was about 2.118 million person times, an increase of 14% year-on-year in 2021, and a decrease of 65% and 57% year-on-year in 2020 and 2019 respectively; Among them, the passenger throughput of Chinese routes was 1.952 million, an increase of 13% year-on-year in 2021, and a decrease of 30% and 37% year-on-year in 2020 and 2019 respectively.
Tax exemption: the tax-free discount of outlying islands weakened month on month, and the tax-free sales of outlying islands exceeded 10 billion in the first 46 days
1) Hainan flight volume tracking: from February 12 to February 18, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 426 and 524 respectively, with a month on week decrease of 0.03% and 0.2% respectively; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou Airport (expected) was 69398, a decrease of 0.9% month on month.
2) tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the discount intensity of direct mail and Haifa control weakened month on month, and the tax-free discount intensity of China free outlying islands, China travel investment and China export service outlying islands were basically the same month on month.
3) according to the data of Hainan Provincial Department of Commerce, as of February 16, the tax-free sales of outlying islands in Hainan province had exceeded 10 billion yuan this year, of which the average daily sales in February exceeded 300 million yuan.
The occupancy rate of the hotel industry decreased month on month in the off-season in January 2022
1) according to STR data, in January 2022, I) OCC: the hotel occupancy rate was 42.1%, with a year-on-year rate of - 1.4pct in 21 years, a year-on-year rate of - 17.8pct in 19 years and a month-on-month rate of - 8.3pct. II) ADR: the average room price of the hotel is 399.8 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7%, a year-on-year increase of - 13% and a month on month increase of + 1%. III) RevPAR: the hotel RevPAR is 168 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21 years + 3%, a year-on-year increase of 19 years - 39% and a month on month increase of - 16%. We believe that the month on month decrease in occupancy rate in January is mainly due to the traditional off-season of the hotel industry during the Spring Festival transportation. 2) The national development and Reform Commission issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry. For taxpayers in the life service industry, the current deductible input tax in 22 years is calculated and deducted by 15%. The hotel industry takes up a lot of value-added tax cash flow. In 2020, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) value-added tax will be reduced or exempted by 93 million yuan, and the input of first trip and Jinjiang value-added tax will be added and deducted by 25.936 million yuan and 14.586 million yuan respectively in the first half of 21 years. With the relevant policies of 22 years and 21 years, we expect to continue to alleviate the cash flow pressure of the hotel industry to a great extent.
Investment suggestion 1) recommendation Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, the marginal travel demand in China is upward, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) three major airlines are recommended: domestic covid-19 oral specific drugs have been approved for listing, the dawn of international flight recovery may be at present, and the company will show great profit flexibility in the recovery stage.
3) recommendation Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) : China's transport capacity accounts for a large proportion, and its performance is the first to recover. Before the opening of the door, its profit performance is more stable and has high long-term growth. Intercontinental routes are expected to become a new growth point.
4) recommendation Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : with obvious scale advantages, obvious improvement in management and accelerated overseas recovery, it is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth.
5) recommendation Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : leading industry of chain hotel group β， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market. Under the three-year goal of 10000 stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%.
6) recommendation China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : under the comprehensive layout of outlying islands + online + Airport + city, the company still has great growth space, and the expansion of duty-free shops on outlying islands in 22 years is expected to bring new catalysis.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the demand of the industry was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified.
