Recently, the first overseas covid-19 specific drug was approved in China
At present, the epidemic situation in China has improved, and the vaccination rate is also increasing. The average number of newly confirmed covid-19 cases in China in the last seven days was 42, significantly lower than the previous high. From the perspective of vaccination, as of February 7, 2022, the number of people who have completed the whole course of covid-19 vaccination in China accounted for 85.05%, and the amount of booster vaccination has also rapidly increased to 31.84 doses per 100 people.
The approval of overseas specific drugs will have a positive impact on China's epidemic prevention and control, but the key to epidemic prevention and control is the large-scale supply of oral specific drugs with independent property rights in the future. On February 11, the State Food and Drug Administration urgently approved Pfizer covid-19 oral drug paxlovid. Clinical trials showed that the drug could reduce the proportion of hospitalization or death by 89%. The approval of overseas specific drugs will have a positive impact on China's epidemic prevention and control, but in order to ensure the stability of China's drug supply, the R & D and popularization of domestic covid-19 specific drugs will be the key.
When will China's epidemic prevention and control see an inflection point?
Many countries have relaxed epidemic prevention policies, and some countries have even cancelled all epidemic restriction measures. Recently, many countries have relaxed their epidemic prevention policies, such as Italy, Germany, Russia and so on. Among them, Sweden, Denmark and Norway have abolished all epidemic restriction measures, and their strict epidemic prevention and control index has been greatly reduced.
With the warmer weather, the epidemic situation in China may improve after the two sessions, and the prevention and control measures may also be relaxed. After the two sessions, there are relatively few major activities until the end of the year, or it is the window period for China to adjust epidemic prevention and control policies. At that time, the warmer weather itself is not conducive to the spread of the epidemic, and the proportion of vaccination in China is expected to further increase. With the gradual popularization of covid-19 specific drugs, the opportunity cost of relaxing epidemic prevention and control measures may be relatively small.
Offline consumption is expected to gradually recover
The spring transportation data of 22 years have recovered significantly. From the situation during the Spring Festival this year, although there is still the disturbance of the epidemic, the spring transportation data has recovered significantly, and the number of passengers has increased significantly compared with the same period in 2021.
In the future, the relaxation of epidemic control measures is expected to bring the repair of offline consumption. In the past 22 years, both internal and external control measures are expected to be relaxed, which will be conducive to the repair of offline consumption.
On the profit side, there is still a lot of room for repair in aviation airport, retail, hotel and other industries. At present, there is still a lot of room for repair in industries such as airports, retail and hotels. If offline consumption improves this year, these sectors may have strong profit elasticity.
In terms of rhythm, the timing of the significant relaxation of epidemic control measures in the future deserves special attention. Since the covid-19 outbreak in January 2020, China's epidemic prevention and control measures have been significantly relaxed for five times. In the time after the five epidemic prevention and control measures were greatly relaxed, the offline consumption sector rose significantly four times.
The allocation direction is still "stable"
The spring market still deserves attention. Historically, the "spring agitation" market appears almost every year. The logic of this spring's market is still valid. After the Spring Festival, the Shanghai stock index rebounded significantly, which is also the embodiment of the restless market to a certain extent. Therefore, on the whole, we believe that the spring market is still worthy of attention.
It is suggested to focus on steady growth and consumption. 1. For the main line of steady growth, it is suggested to pay attention to traditional infrastructure (machinery, building materials and construction) and new infrastructure (wind power and photovoltaic). 2, the main line of consumption is: first, we should pay attention to Baijiu, medicine and other industries with high certainty. Second, home appliances, new energy vehicles and other industries benefiting from consumption subsidies and stimulus policies; Third, offline consumer industries that are expected to benefit from the decline of the epidemic, including tourism, aviation and other industries.
Risk analysis: 1. The level of economic growth is significantly lower than expected; 2. Overseas liquidity crisis.
