At the stage of economic and policy differentiation between China and the United States, will there be an independent market for a shares? Since the resumption of trading in 2010, the correlation between China and the US stock markets has been positive most of the time, that is, the two markets show a strong trend of rising and falling together. Historically, the differentiation of China US economy and policies mainly occurred from the end of 2014 to the end of 2015 and from the second quarter of 2018 to the end of 2018. However, there was no obvious differentiation between A-Shares and U.S. stocks in these two periods, but the increase in the bull market of A-Shares in the first half of 2015 was greater than that of U.S. stocks.
Despite the differentiation of China US economy and policies, the short-term trend of US stocks may still be an important external factor affecting the A-share market. At present, the core factors affecting US stocks are gradually shifting from policy (fed interest rate hike and contraction table) and incident (Russia Ukraine conflict) to performance. On the one hand, geopolitical policy often does not become the core contradiction that continues to dominate the market. On the other hand, the current expected pricing of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve is relatively sufficient, and the impact of table contraction is expected to be relatively mild, because the maturity scale is not large, and the coordination effect of bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance may increase significantly. For the performance of U.S. stocks, the current U.S. economy is still in the upward peak stage. From the performance of the fourth quarter report, the strong profit trend of U.S. stocks may continue, and the strong performance supports the stabilization and recovery probability of U.S. stocks is high.
From defensive to offensive stage, A-Shares may usher in a small and medium-sized growth moment. Under the defensive idea, the undervalued value is preferred, but in the subsequent context of "worry free inside and trouble free outside", when A-Shares change from defensive to offensive, the undervalued value sector is difficult to have relative returns, even the infrastructure sector with stable growth attribute. Because historically, the relative return of the infrastructure sector is not strongly related to the industry roe. Moreover, the increase in the growth rate of infrastructure investment is also difficult to be reflected in the roe of listed companies. One belt, one road, is the main reason for the huge excess revenue in the history of the infrastructure sector. The inflection point of the growth curve of the new energy sector is still difficult to see in the short term, and the medium and long-term logic is difficult to prove. The sector continues to adjust under the current negative capital feedback, and may usher in a deterministic recovery after the landing of performance uncertainty.
Industry configuration: the stabilization and recovery of the new energy sector, the layout of TMT hard technology on the left, pay attention to the short-term and fast opportunities of securities companies, and gradually pay attention to the dilemma reversal opportunities such as airports, restaurants and hotels
1) at present, there is no significant change in the fundamentals and policies of heavy positions of new energy and other institutions, which has stabilized and rebounded or is an event with high probability. According to the recently disclosed annual report forecast, companies in the sector have generally achieved high growth. Although some investors are worried that the market has too high expectations for the performance growth of the new energy sector, there is a potential risk that the performance is lower than expected. But at present, the probability of smoothly passing the performance test is high.
2) TMT is the sector with large expectation difference, especially the sector in TMT that is biased towards hard technology, such as communication, computer, etc. First, the industry boom remained stable and upward; Secondly, the valuation of the sector is basically at the bottom of history; In addition, policies such as new infrastructure may become market catalytic factors. It is suggested to actively layout the core industrial chain: automobile intelligent industrial chain, 5gtob end application, industrial digitization, Huawei industrial chain, etc.
3) remain relatively optimistic about the future market, and the brokerage sector is expected to perform a beta market in the upward stage of the market. However, it should be pointed out that although the fundamentals of securities companies are relatively strong, the industry performance is closely related to the fluctuation of market risk appetite.
4) with the approval of Pfizer covid-19 oral specific drug in China, the clinical progress of domestic covid-19 oral drug is superimposed. With the warming of temperature, the evolution of epidemic trend and the changes of China's prevention and control policies deserve special attention. At present, we can gradually pay attention to the sectors that are expected to reverse their plight, such as airports, restaurants and hotels.
Risk tips: the economic recovery is not as expected, the macro liquidity contraction risk, and the overseas black swan event
