Key investment points:
CPI declined slightly and PPI continued to fall. China's CPI and PPI fell year-on-year in January. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China's CPI rose 0.9% year-on-year in January, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. PPI rose 9.1% year-on-year, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, the third consecutive month of decline. In January, the CPI was generally stable. Affected by the high base in the same period last year, the price of pork in food decreased by 41.6%, expanding by 4.9 percentage points, which was the main negative term in CPI. In addition, the price of fresh vegetables also decreased; However, affected by the Spring Festival, the prices of fresh fruits and aquatic products increased by 9.9% and 8.8% respectively. In January, PPI continued to fall, and the prices of coal, steel and other industries fell, driving the overall decline of industrial product prices. In the year-on-year increase of 9.1% in January, the tail warping impact of price changes last year was about 9.3 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about - 0.2 percentage points. It is expected that the overall inflation pressure in the first quarter is not large, and PPI continues to show a trend of high shock and decline.
The steady growth policy has been pushed forward one after another. In view of the current downward pressure on the economy, the constraints restricting the operation of the industrial economy and the difficulties encountered by some special difficult industries in the service industry, 18 policies were jointly issued by multiple departments to promote the steady growth of the industrial economy and 43 policies to promote the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry. The policy of delaying the payment of some taxes by small, medium-sized and micro enterprises in the manufacturing industry implemented in the fourth quarter of 2021 will be implemented for a further six months; We will continue to implement the preferential policies of subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles, awards and subsidies for charging facilities, and reduction and exemption of vehicle and vessel taxes. Specific measures for the relief and support of five industries with special difficulties, including catering, retail, tourism, highway, waterway and railway transportation and civil aviation, were defined. The government has released a strong signal to the market that the policy force should be appropriately advanced and efforts should be made to stabilize the economy.
G20 central bank meeting called for concerted action. The communique of the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors called on members to take concerted action to control the epidemic and promote global economic recovery. Members pledged to maintain financial stability and long-term sustainability. When formulating policies to support economic recovery, we should make a detailed plan and fully communicate according to the specific situation, so as to avoid downside risks and negative spillover effects. Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, said at the G20 finance ministers' and central bank governors' meeting that China's total inflation temperature is high, monetary policy is flexible, accurate, reasonable and appropriate, and the quality and efficiency of serving the real economy are continuously improved. He will maintain the flexibility and appropriateness of prudent monetary policy, strengthen cross cycle regulation, and promote high-quality economic development. It is expected that China's monetary policy will continue to adopt a relatively loose trend to cope with the downward pressure on the economy.
Investment advice:. National ministries and commissions have successively issued steady growth and increased holdings to provide more support measures for industrial enterprises and service industries. G20 finance ministers and central bank governors emphasized coordinated action. The conflict in Ukraine has put pressure on the overseas market, and the Chinese market may be affected to some extent. It is suggested to maintain 60% of the position and pay attention to construction, computer and non bank in the short term.
Risk warning: the policy and economic data are not as expected, and the risk events impact the market liquidity.
