Investment summary:
A share capital retreated and turned red this week, rising 0.81% during the week to close at 3658.50, and all major indexes showed an upward trend. The top indexes in the week were Kechuang entrepreneurship 50, gem composite, gem 50, CSI 1000 and other indexes. The indexes with small increase during the week are dividend index, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 and other indexes. The top indexes since the beginning of the year are dividend index, Shanghai Stock Exchange 180, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, A-share index and so on.
This week, the sectors showed differentiation. Among them, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, medicine, biology and other sectors led the increase. Non bank finance, utilities and banking sectors performed poorly. Since the beginning of the year, the top performance sectors are coal, building decoration, banking, petroleum and petrochemical and real estate, and the worst performance sectors are national defense and military industry, electronics, power equipment, medicine and biology and beauty care.
This week, the northward capital generally showed a net outflow, and the net purchase amount of foreign capital was -239867 million yuan.
Macroeconomic: China’s low inflation overseas
In January, China’s national CPI (consumer price index) increased by 0.9% year-on-year. On a month on month basis, CPI increased by 0.4% from a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month. By sub item, food prices decreased by 3.8% year-on-year and non food prices increased by 2.0%; Consumer goods prices rose 0.4% and service prices rose 1.7%.
Internationally, the core PPI of the United States in January increased by 9.4% year-on-year and 0.8% month on month; CPI in the UK changed by – 0.1% month on month in January; Japan’s CPI increased by 0.3% month on month in January; Japan’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 was released, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, compared with the previous value of 1.2%; Last week, the EIA finished gasoline inventory decreased by 5% month on month, and the Oklahoma Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 7% month on month; Strong demand for crude oil in the global market; The euro zone’s February zer economic climate index fell 0.02 to 48.6 month on month, while Germany’s February ZEW Economic Climate Index was 54.3, up 0.05 month on month.
Policy release: the project of “counting East and counting West” was officially launched
(1) on February 18, the national development and Reform Commission and other 12 departments issued the notice on printing and Distributing Several Policies to promote the steady growth of industrial economy, proposing five policies on fiscal taxes, financial credit, ensuring supply and price stability, investment, foreign trade and foreign investment, land use, energy use and environment, so as to promote the steady growth of industrial economy.
(2) on February 16, the national development and Reform Commission, the central network information office, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a notice agreeing to start the construction of National Computing hub nodes in 8 places, including Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Dawan District, Chengdu and Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Gansu and Ningxia, and planned 10 national data center clusters. So far, the overall layout design of the national integrated big data center system has been completed, and the “counting from the east to the west” project has been officially launched.
Meso observation: high demand, wide application and rapid development of rare earth industry
Rare earths are widely used downstream. Rare earth metals and oxides can be precisely processed into a variety of downstream materials such as rare earth permanent magnet materials, rare earth luminescent materials, rare earth catalytic materials and rare earth hydrogen storage materials. They are widely used in wind power generation, new energy vehicles, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioners, energy-saving elevators, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and intelligent manufacturing.
The overall supply of rare earth lacks elasticity. China’s rare earth mining volume is regulated by the state, and the annual increment is limited. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the notice on Issuing the total control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2022 on January 28. The total control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2022 were 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively, an increase of 20% compared with the first batch of mining quota in 2021, and the increase rate is only the same as that of last year, The increment of mining index is limited.
As the most potential sector of rare earth materials, rare earth permanent magnet will grow rapidly with the two trends of double carbon environmental protection and intelligent manufacturing. In 2025, the global consumption of high-performance NdFeB will reach 130000 tons, the CAGR in the next five years will be 14.4%, and the penetration rate will increase from 31.0% to 42.3%, which will become the main driving force driving the growth of rare earth permanent magnet market space. Among them, from 2022 to 2025, 50% of China’s new demand for NdFeB is expected to come from the field of new energy vehicles, 25% from industrial motors, and wind power and household appliances are expected to contribute 10% of the demand respectively. Investment suggestion: China’s macro-economy is under pressure and inflation is low. In the first and second quarters, steady growth will be the main policy line, and new and old infrastructure will be the first to make efforts. After that, it is expected that the steady growth policy will change from infrastructure driven to epidemic prevention policy. At present, the old infrastructure pays attention to the urban pipe network construction and investment opportunities in the cement sector, while the new infrastructure pays attention to the opportunities in the digital economy sector.
Risk tip: the strength of steady growth policy is less than the expected risk
