Key investment points
At the current time, it is suggested to focus on four main lines of the consumption sector:
Under the background of clear guidelines for steady growth + gradual implementation of policies + accurate epidemic prevention and control, the fundamentals and valuation of the consumer sector are expected to usher in double repair. At the current time point, it is recommended to pay attention to the following main lines and targets:
1. Gold jewelry: resumption in peak season - clear trend and logical confirmation. According to the "2022 China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) Market Outlook" report released by the World Gold Council, the demand and consumption of China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) in 2022 will achieve a "good start". From New Year's Eve to before the Lantern Festival, China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) consumption still increased by 12% year-on-year under the condition of high base last year, and the industry showed a high outlook. In terms of sales categories, gram heavy gold is mainly used, and ancient gold jewelry, hard full gold jewelry and zodiac jewelry in the year of the tiger are welcomed by consumers. We reviewed the recent research and research results to further verify the core logic of sector recommendation: "aesthetic awakening" & "leading change" drives the head brand into the "golden" era. It is recommended to pay attention to Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916)
2. Post real estate cycle: after the callback, the configuration cost performance is highlighted. The steady growth policy was intensively introduced this week. The national development and Reform Commission and other departments issued several policies on promoting the steady growth of industrial economy and several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, and issued 18 specific policies to promote the steady growth of industrial economy and 43 hard and practical measures to promote the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry. In addition, the reduction of the down payment ratio of individual housing loans of commercial banks in many provinces and cities has aroused widespread concern in the market. It is expected that the follow-up of the "policy implementation for the city" type of deregulation will be more frequent. Wide currency + wide credit & marginal improvement of real estate is good for the home appliance and home appliance industry with strong cycle attribute after real estate, and the leading home appliance and home appliance target is strong α Superimposed on the expansion of categories and channels, the operation shows a good growth trend, and the configuration value is more prominent after the recent correction. It is suggested to pay attention to Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , Minhua holdings; Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) 、 Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) 、 Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) 、 Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911)
3. Agriculture: the second bottom is accelerated to meet the establishment of cycle reversal. At present, there are still differences in the market on the deregulation of sow production capacity, the breeding loss in the first half of the year and the trend of pig price from April to May. We believe that the degree of deregulation of production capacity is still insufficient, the loss in the second quarter intensifies or leads to the elimination of sows with offspring, and the capital market may form a consistent expectation of cycle reversal in the accelerated decline of pig price in the second quarter. We choose the target according to the enterprise's "changes in sow stock" and "cost improvement". The former determines whether it can step on the right pace next year, and the latter determines whether it can survive the cold winter and profit space next year. It is suggested to pay attention to Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100)
4. Sports clothing: high-end & domestic products are popular in the beginning of the year. Driven by the Winter Olympics, the comparable performance of high-end sports brands (Archaeopteryx and desant under Anta) in January natural month and Spring Festival led the industry, and the comparable growth rate of domestic goods leaders Li Ning, Anta, Tebu, 361 ° natural month in January and Spring Festival was bright. It is suggested to pay attention to Anta, Li Ning, Tebu and 361 °
5, Baijiu: optimistic about 22Q1 performance high elasticity + valuation with price target. Since the Spring Festival payment collection, delivery and dynamic sales of liquor enterprises are drawing to a close, the market will correct and compare the 22q1 performance of liquor enterprises. We are optimistic about the target performance of 22q1 performance increase + cost-effective valuation. We recommend Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702)
Risk tips: repeated outbreaks outside China, less than expected capacity expansion, intensified international trade frictions, etc.
