Main points
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on the 16th, PPI in January increased by 9.1% year-on-year and the previous value increased by 10.3%, supported by oil and electricity and dragged down by high energy consumption; In January, CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and increased by 0.4% month on month, dragged down by the expansion of the decline in pork prices.
At present, the ppi-cpi scissors gap is still large. Although the cost side of consumer goods has dropped slightly, it remains high on the whole. In terms of sub items, energy prices, especially oil prices, have increased significantly, and maritime transportation still has a great impact on the export cost of consumer goods in terms of freight rate and customs clearance time; On the raw material side, copper and aluminum prices rose, wheat and soybean meal rose more, and molasses and white granulated sugar fell somewhat; Packaging materials also have an upward trend. It shows that the impact of different cost ratios on consumer goods may be different. Since the beginning of the year, the price increase of consumer goods has continued, including consumer goods of different categories such as food and beverage, household appliances, household appliances, daily chemicals and catering.
According to the continuous tracking of our Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) and survey data, we believe that different consumer categories are at different stages of transmission. In terms of several channels, the response of online retail price increase is the fastest, and the decline of food discount rate, especially the community group purchase channel, is the most obvious.
From the perspective of industry, food combined with sales volume, the transmission of edible oil and dairy products is the most smooth, and the price and sales are increased; The discount rate of group purchase channel in condiment community decreased significantly, and attention was paid to the elimination of inventory and the improvement of dynamic sales ratio; In the continuous price increase of beer, more medium and high-grade single products with low price sensitivity are included. With the restoration of offline consumption scenes brought by the stable epidemic situation, we are optimistic about the sales volume of beer in peak season and release the profit elasticity.
Household appliances are heavily affected by the real estate industry chain and cost. In the future, with the marginal relaxation of real estate policy, the demand pressure will be relieved. At the same time, the rise of the cost side is expected to be transmitted downward through category innovation and function innovation. In 2021, the cumulative average price of all categories increased year-on-year, especially the average price of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) sweeping. The cumulative average price of the whole year increased by 41.73% year-on-year, followed by clothes dryers, with a year-on-year increase of 28.27%. From the perspective of sales volume, the transmission of price increase of washing machines, refrigerators, integrated stoves and clothes dryers is the most smooth, and the sales volume increases at the same time. The integration of home customization and software sales trend is obvious, which requires higher comprehensive ability of brands and dealers, and the industry pattern is expected to usher in marginal optimization.
The price rise of double glue and white card of paper category has been successfully implemented, the operating rate has rebounded, the inventory decontamination has improved, and it is optimistic that the profit per ton will be repaired quarterly.
Export OEM products, such as bicycles, home furnishings, textile clothing, etc.: the recent contract price increases occurred after the cost of raw materials had risen. The pressure on the cost of raw materials remained high, while the overseas activities increased, the demand for all kinds of upgraded consumer goods increased, and there were sufficient orders on hand.
Investment advice
The price increase since the beginning of the year is mostly the general rise after the rise of raw material costs, and more companies and products are involved in the price increase. From the current price increase transmission tracking, it is suggested to focus on the leading dairy product Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) (stable demand, appropriate cost control / structural improvement can drive the increase of profit margin) Edible oil and beer companies (under the stable epidemic situation, the restoration of consumption scenes drives the improvement of catering consumption); Home appliance companies with consumption upgrading and product innovation; Leading export OEM enterprises benefiting from strong travel demand and improved bargaining power (such as bicycle / electric bicycle ODM leader Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) , bicycle parts leader, textile and garment export OEM leader Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) ); And leading household leaders with significant comprehensive ability.
Risk tips
The global epidemic is serious, the economy has fallen sharply, policies and regulations have been overweight, and international trade policies have changed.
