Market review: the two cities continued to pick up, and the volume contracted for many days closed up
In terms of the market, the Wande all a index continued to pick up in the past five trading days, with a cumulative closing increase of 1.70%. The market turnover fell slightly, and A-Shares showed a shrinking and rising trend for many consecutive days. The total net outflow of northward funds this week was 2.398 billion yuan. In the past five trading days, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, medicine and biology, beauty care and architectural decoration led the increase, while non bank finance, public utilities, banking, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery led the decline.
MLF continued to operate in excess of the equivalent and maintained a reasonable margin of liquidity
On February 15, the central bank announced to carry out the medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation of 300 billion yuan, and the interest rate remained unchanged at 2.85%. Combined with the amount due this month, the MLF continued to exceed the quota. The current market liquidity is better than that at the end of 2021. The policy is moderately loose and the intention to maintain stability is obvious, which has continuously fulfilled the commitment of steady growth in the early monetary policy implementation report. We believe that the determination and strength to stabilize growth this time are strong. According to the news on the website of the Ministry of Finance on February 14, the Ministry of finance has issued in advance the new local government debt limit of 1788 billion yuan in 2022, including 328 billion yuan of general debt limit and 1460 billion yuan of special debt limit. In January, local governments issued 698.9 billion yuan of local government bonds, including 583.7 billion yuan of new local government bonds (99.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 484.4 billion yuan of special bonds); Refinancing bonds amounted to 115.2 billion yuan (23.1 billion yuan for general bonds and 92.1 billion yuan for special bonds). On the whole, the pace of issuance of special bonds was significantly accelerated in 2022, and the effectiveness of coordinated development of fiscal and monetary policies has been shown. On the one hand, the issuance of new special bonds was accelerated in January, which led to signs of recovery in infrastructure. On the other hand, the continuous easing of monetary policy has made the overall credit data in January "exceed expectations". However, the credit structure is still poor. Under the impact of the epidemic, China's consumption recovery has slowed down again, and the confidence of market players still needs the protection of policies.
In January, the year-on-year growth rate of China's CPI and PPI fell, and the inflationary pressure slowed down
On February 16, the data released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that in January, CPI increased by 0.4% month on month from a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, falling to less than 1%; PPI rose 9.1% year-on-year, and the increase fell, with a month on month decrease of 0.2%. On the whole, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI and PPI fell in January, releasing the signal of slowing down inflationary pressure. Specifically, the main reason for CPI to turn from down to up on a month on month basis is that the strong demand for holiday food, transportation and services has driven the prices of relevant sub items to rise, and the year-on-year increase has decreased by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month. Among them, the price of pork has decreased by 41.6%, the decline has expanded by 4.9 percentage points, and the price of fresh vegetables has decreased by 4.1% from 10.6% last month, Gasoline and diesel price increases also narrowed. In terms of PPI, the price of means of production increased by 11.8% year-on-year and fell by 1.6 percentage points; The price of means of subsistence increased by 0.8% year-on-year and fell by 0.2 percentage points. Under the intervention of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the prices of coal and steel continued to decline, while the relevant prices in the oil industry rose month on month, or mainly due to the impact of the high international oil price, the year-on-year growth rate was still narrowed, and the upward pressure on prices slowed down significantly as a whole.
The United States released the minutes of FOMC meeting in January, and the hawkish degree was lower than the market expectation
In the early morning of February 17, Beijing time, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting in January released by the Federal Reserve showed that the US inflation rate was too high and the economy was close to full employment, so it was reasonable to raise interest rates as soon as possible. Most participants pointed out that if inflation did not decline as expected, it would be appropriate for the committee to cancel easing faster than currently expected. We believe that there is no clear evidence in the minutes of the FOMC meeting in January that the interest rate increase will exceed 25bp. The overall statement is slightly lower than the previous market expectation (50bp interest rate increase). In general, it is difficult to ease the upward pressure of US inflation in the first half of the year, but it may have entered the peak stage, and it is expected to gradually fall under the influence of high base and energy price peaking in the second half of the year, However, the decline range is also limited. On the whole, there is a top and a bottom. The main reason is that after the outbreak of the epidemic, the insufficient investment in the global crude oil supply side makes the release range of the overall idle capacity limited, and the crude oil price may maintain a certain toughness at a high level, which makes it difficult for the energy price to fall significantly, and at the same time, it may affect the industrial production cost through the conduction effect.
Zhou Du's view: pay attention to the opportunities brought by the expected repair and changes in industrial layout policies
At the macroeconomic level, the uncertainty of the current market mainly comes from overseas. First, the FOMC meeting minutes of the United States indicate that the global market price adjustment has been driven by relative market expectations, while the US inflation data is unlikely to improve in the short term. Second, Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly fermented the global conflict; Third, the UK and the European Central Bank continuously released the partial Eagle signal, breaking the previous market expectations. On the whole, the recovery of overseas liquidity is still a definite event, and the overall rhythm is tight before and loose after. We must focus on the marginal changes in the global financial environment, especially in emerging market countries. The probability of the full outbreak of geopolitical risks is limited, but the repeated fermentation on the news may continue to impact the global market sentiment. The certainty of China is relatively strong. Under the background of the marginal slowdown of inflation pressure, China is still expected to maintain a better liquidity environment in the first and second quarters, and it is expected to cut interest rates in the first half of the year. The overweight of structural monetary policy is expected to drive the concepts of digital economy, expanding domestic demand and dual control of energy consumption.
In terms of market, this week's A-share market continued the previous warming trend, shrinking and rising for several consecutive days. Under the background of insufficient energy, style switching and sector rotation accelerated, lithium battery, new energy, medicine and other track stocks collectively warmed up, the undervalued sector fluctuated greatly during the week, and the steady growth of the industrial chain was restless repeatedly. The positive profitability of the annual report led to the continuous rise of nonferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemical sectors. The continuous fermentation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to the intraday rise of the military industry and gold sectors during the week, and the reduction of the down payment ratio in many places led to the strengthening of the real estate sector. The launch of the "counting from the east to the west" project led to the reappearance of concepts such as big data and cloud computing.
At present, the volume of the A-share market is slightly insufficient and the style is not clear. The impact of the news on the performance of the sector is more obvious and frequent. We believe that this is mainly because investors have great differences in their judgment on the future market trend. In the context of the continuous rise of overseas uncertainty risks, China's continued easing and steady growth and hedging against the downward pressure of the economy, we suggest paying attention to the regression of the epidemic disturbance and some undervalued sectors expected to be repaired in the adjustment of steady growth in the short term, and focusing on the value blue chips with better defense ability in the downward economic environment.
In terms of industry, (1) pay attention to the national defense and military industry sector. At present, the probability of further deterioration of geographical conflicts is relatively limited, but under the background of the big country game, it may continue to ferment in the short term. As far as China is concerned, the proportion of military spending in GDP is relatively low. The construction of a strong army during the 14th five year plan period is expected to promote the prosperity of sub sectors such as core components, new information equipment and new materials, In addition, the military industry sector has been fully adjusted recently and has a better configuration and cost performance. It is recommended to pay attention to it. (2) Focus on the concept of digital economy. The launch of the project of "counting East and counting West" may accelerate the implementation of digital economy strategy. Under the guidance of medium and long-term trend opportunities, it is suggested to focus on new infrastructure, 5g technology, industrial Internet, big data and other sectors in the short term in combination with the macro direction of cross cycle adjustment. (3) Focus on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. The livestock and poultry breeding sector has experienced a large degree of adjustment this week. We re emphasize that the pig industry sector may gradually enter the upward period. It is suggested to lengthen the allocation cycle, continue to pay attention to the marginal change of production capacity and intervene in time. (4) Focus on the real estate sector. On the whole, the transformation of the real estate industry is a long-term trend, but the excessive pessimism of market sentiment in the short term is also not conducive to the stable operation of macro-economy. We believe that "implementing policies due to cities" in cross cycle regulation may be the main direction of the adjustment of the real estate industry. In the short term, domestic policies are expected to accelerate the care of market sentiment and promote the expected repair, And the current valuation level of the real estate sector is at a historical low, so it is recommended to pay attention.
Medium and long term strategy
In the medium and long term, we suggest investors continue to focus on three directions. Consumption sector: medicine and consumption upgrading. Long term high-quality track: carbon neutralization, scientific and technological innovation and new infrastructure. Stable bottom position variety: big finance.
Risk tips
Global liquidity tightened more than expected; The global epidemic has developed beyond expectations; The macroeconomic growth rate fell faster than expected; The global energy crisis has further intensified; Inflation pressure continues to rise; Technological development is less than expected.
