Key investment points
One week scan:
Epidemic situation: the global epidemic continues to improve, and the tightness of epidemic prevention varies among countries. In the last week, about 14.51 million new confirmed cases and deaths of covid-19 pneumonia were recorded worldwide, down 22.1% from the previous week. There were about 69000 new deaths worldwide, down 7.7% from last week. The total amount of global vaccination this week was the same as last week, recording 190 million doses. About 1.23 billion doses of booster injections have been inoculated globally, up 5.9% from last week. The global booster vaccination rate was 15.2%, up 0.4% from last week. Among them, Europe and the United States have increased needle vaccination, accounting for 25.7% of the world, down 1.1% from last week. The control of epidemic prevention varies from country to country. On the one hand, with the continuous decline of new diagnoses, European and American countries have further relaxed epidemic prevention policies. Washington, D.C. announced that it would end the mandatory mask and vaccination certification requirements for business places. The German government plans to lift most covid-19 epidemic restrictions in March. On the other hand, some countries still maintain the current relatively strict control measures due to the impact of the epidemic, and the Australian government extended the emergency measures for the epidemic to April. The covid-19 pneumonia epidemic expert group in Thailand decided to maintain the existing restrictive measures.
Overseas: the Federal Reserve is determined to control inflation, and the European Central Bank may raise interest rates cautiously. Inflation risk may accelerate the tightening of Fed policy. According to the minutes of the Fed meeting, participants agreed that the uncertainty of the inflation path increased and the inflation risk showed an upward trend. The PCE inflation rate is expected to be 2.6% in 2022 and 2% in 2023. The pace of policy tightening should be accelerated. The European Central Bank may raise interest rates cautiously to deal with inflation. Even in the face of inflationary pressure, some members of the European central bank sent a signal that interest rates should be raised cautiously. European Central Bank Management Committee Kazaks said that the European Central Bank is “very likely” to raise interest rates in 2022 to deal with the unprecedented surge in prices in the eurozone, and urged a “cautious and gradual” policy change. Russia and Ukraine said each other opened fire, and the situation in Ukraine was tense. US retail sales rose significantly month on month in December. US retail sales rose 3.8% month on month in January, the highest since March 2021. The CPI of the United States and Britain reached a new high year-on-year. The CPI of the United States recorded 7.5% year-on-year in January, a new high in nearly 40 years. The US one-year inflation expectation fell to 5.8% in January, the lowest since October 2021. The CPI of the UK recorded a year-on-year increase of 5.5% in January, higher than 5.4% in December last year, again setting a new high since 1992.
Prices: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale prices fell and international oil prices rose. This week, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price index of the Ministry of agriculture fell month on month, with the average price of 28 key monitored vegetables and 7 key monitored fruits falling. The average prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil rose this week, and the average prices of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal and rebar both fell.
Liquidity: the capital interest rate is divided, and the US dollar index rises. The interest rate of short-term funds differentiated this week, the weekly average of dr001 rose by 5.4bp month on month, and the weekly average of dr007 remained unchanged; The weekly average of 3-month Shibor interest rate and 3-month certificate of deposit issuance interest rate decreased month on month. The interest rate of bills continued to fall, and the weekly average of 1-month, 6-month and 1-year rediscount interest rate of state-owned shares and silver bills decreased. This week, the central bank conducted a total of 50 billion yuan of reverse repo and 300 billion yuan of MLF in the open market. This week, the central bank’s open market has a total of 300 billion yuan of reverse repo and 200 billion yuan of MLF expired; Next week, the central bank will have 50 billion yuan of reverse repo due in the open market. The US dollar index rose this week and the trend of RMB rose slightly.
Performance of major categories of assets: the gem fell significantly and the yield of government bonds rose. The main A-share indexes rebounded this week, with the growth enterprise market index leading the increase; US stocks and Hong Kong stocks all corrected this week. The top three sectors in which Chinese stocks rose this week were power equipment, non-ferrous metals and pharmaceutical biology. This week, the weekly average yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose by 5.2bp, and the weekly average yield of 10-year CDB bonds rose by 3.6bp.
Risk tip: policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected.
