This week (February 14 to February 18, 2022, the same below) Hang Seng Index – 2.32%, Dow Jones Industrial Index – 1.90%, S & P 500 index – 1.58%, NASDAQ index – 1.76%. This week, the Hang Seng technology index was – 2.09%, and the Hang Seng China enterprise index was – 2.81%.
The national development and Reform Commission issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry
On February 18, the national development and Reform Commission issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, saying that it would guide Internet platform enterprises such as takeout to further reduce the service fee standard of catering merchants and reduce the operating costs of relevant catering enterprises. Guide Internet platform enterprises to give preferential service fees to phased merchants to catering enterprises in county-level administrative regions where high-risk areas are located. The policy also encourages qualified places to carry out regular nucleic acid testing for employees of catering enterprises free of charge, and provide subsidies and support for enterprise epidemic prevention and killing expenses. In principle, employees of catering enterprises should be given subsidies with a proportion of no less than 50% for regular nucleic acid testing in 2022.
We believe that the overall orientation of this policy is phased relief. Under cautious assumptions, Bloomberg predicts that meituan’s take out OP will decrease by about 600-4 billion (corresponding to a decrease of about 7% – 45%) in 2022, and meituan’s single average OP will decrease by 0.03-0.23 yuan. Meituan has a variety of methods to hedge the impact. In the medium and long term, the policy encourages the platform to assume more social responsibility and does not point to permanent rate restrictions. It is expected that meituan takeout may support small and medium-sized merchants and the medium and long-term continuous improvement of comprehensive monetization rate / single average profit through rate structural adjustment, subsidy control, promotion and marketing, etc. It is expected that the market panic may ease in the short term, and the details of subsequent specific fee reduction measures and the marginal recovery of the local living industry are expected to promote the gradual repair.
Adjustment results of Hang Seng Index: the comprehensive index expands the capacity of 17 stocks, and Xiaopeng is ideal to enter the science and technology index
On the evening of February 18, the Hang Seng Index company announced the latest quarterly review results. The adjustment of a series of index components will take effect on Monday, March 7 this year. According to the announcement of the index company, the Hang Seng index will join Lenovo Group and nongnongshan spring in this adjustment. No company will be eliminated, and the number of constituent stocks will rise to 66. The number of constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Composite Index will increase from 500 to 517. Among them, 29 stocks were included, including Shangtang group, China nonferrous metals, China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) , clover biology, minimally invasive Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , microblog, Netease cloud music and green city management. Most of the 12 stocks excluded from the Hang Seng Composite index are related to the real estate and education industries, such as Hang Lung Group, flower year, times neighborhood, etc.
Ding Dong’s revenue from buying vegetables increased by 77.5% year-on-year last year, and Shanghai made a profit in December last year
On the evening of February 15, dingdong shopping (NYSE: DDL) released its fourth quarter performance report as of December 31, 2021. According to the fourth quarter performance report, Ding Dong’s vegetable shopping achieved a revenue of 5.48 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of last year, an increase of 72.0% year-on-year. In 2021, the revenue was 20.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.5%. The gross profit margin was 27.7%, up 9.5 percentage points from the previous quarter. Shanghai achieved overall profit in December last year, and the whole Yangtze River Delta also achieved UE correction in the fourth quarter of last year, and the overall loss rate was greatly optimized.
Investment suggestions:
We believe that the market adjustment on Friday mainly comes from the excessive concern of the market about the “new round of regulation” under the background of short-term weakening of fundamentals. Looking forward to 2022, we believe that the policy environment is more biased towards the implementation of regulatory requirements, encouraging innovation and enabling economy. It is expected that with the continuous implementation of detailed rules, the marginal impact is expected to gradually stabilize. The fundamentals are affected by the macro environment in the short term. The growth momentum is expected to recover quarterly from 2022q2, and the valuation allowance of vertical / horizontal comparison is obvious. Overall, the risk return ratio of China’s Internet technology enterprises is attractive. It is suggested that China’s Internet companies be concerned about opportunities in the digital economy and globalization development, such as Tencent, US group, spate of many, Alibaba, NetEase, Jingdong, Kwai, beep, health and graffiti.
In terms of U.S. stocks, from a macroeconomic perspective, the number of interest rate increases may exceed expectations, the real interest rate of U.S. bonds has accelerated upward, and the inflationary pressure remains, which mainly has a certain valuation pressure on overseas high growth companies. The valuation pressure of technology giants remains, but the pressure on growth stocks is relatively small. According to the four seasons report of the technology giant, cloud computing is growing rapidly. The biggest variable of advertising business is Apple’s att policy and competition pattern. The problems of consumer electronics supply chain are further alleviated. We suggest to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of metauniverse, cloud computing, consumer electronics and automatic driving industry chain, as well as the competition and related advertising brought by the rise of short video ecology in the Internet For the industry development of e-commerce, it is recommended to pay attention to Microsoft, Amazon, roblox, unity, block (square renamed) and confirm.
Risk tips: 1. Overseas epidemic control is less than expected; 2. Sino US trade friction; 3. The risk of tightening Internet supervision; 4. The tightening of liquidity environment exceeded expectations; 5. Competition in overseas markets has intensified.
