Main points
Macro view:
1. China’s steady growth is still in its early stage, and real estate is the main variable in the rhythm and degree of steady growth. The rhythm of China’s policy is related to the economic policy and rhythm of the United States, while the economic policy and rhythm of the United States are mainly related to inflation.
2. US inflation expectations are down, US economic policies focus on supply recovery and improvement of inflation, the economy tends to be stable, and the recovery of capital expenditure promotes the rise of real interest rate. However, monetary policy suppresses inflation and real interest rate at the same time, so the upward space of us nominal interest rate is limited.
3. The impact of U.S. monetary policy on major global assets should be viewed and judged from the perspective of supply and demand, but not from the perspective of liquidity. Short-term asset fluctuations and expectations are related to the game. China should have a comparative advantage in the future of U.S. economic growth, which will mean that under the time window of U.S. interest rate hike, it is possible to accelerate the inflow of foreign capital into China.
Market view:
1. The market style tends to be balanced in the short term, and the growth style will rebound in the short term after the rapid decline, but the main line of steady growth is not over, which suppresses the growth style. Coal with a good long-term trend of carbon neutralization, new energy leaders and automotive intelligence are the main directions.
2. The operation path of real estate will become the core influencing factor of medium-term market structure and index rise and fall.
3. This round of interest rate hikes in the United States is different from the previous rounds of interest rate hikes. The impact of inflation on U.S. monetary policy increases, and the U.S. economic growth may slow down and drive the global economic growth to slow down. This factor will have a certain impact on US stocks, but it will not change the upward trend of US stocks.
4. After experiencing the expected impact of liquidity last year, Hong Kong stocks are not vulnerable to the impact of U.S. monetary policy this year. On the contrary, there will be positive feedback from China’s steady growth on the profit side.
Optimistic about the sector:
1. Coal, real estate property leader of central enterprises, C-end real estate chain, food and beverage, automotive electronics and new energy leader.
2. Be optimistic about Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Hong Kong stock Internet technology index and Nasdaq 100 index.
Market resumption: the overall style of the market this week is relatively balanced, with cycle, consumption and growth rising. The market has gradually warmed up, and most of shenwanyi industries have risen, with power equipment, non-ferrous metals, medicine and biology leading the rise, while banks, public utilities and non bank finance leading the decline.
Index performance: the main market indexes rose collectively this week, and some indexes with large retreat before the festival continued to rise. Kechuang 50, gem index, quana, CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE Composite Index and SSE 50 rose by 2.97%, 2.93%, 1.70%, 1.33%, 1.08%, 0.80% and 0.63% respectively.
Style performance: large, medium and small markets have risen, the overvalued sector has stopped falling and rebounded, and the undervalued sector has retreated. Large cap stocks, medium cap stocks and small cap stocks rose 0.54%, 0.81% and 0.02% respectively. In the valuation sector, the overvalued sector and the medium valuation sector increased by 2.78% and 0.66% respectively, and the undervalued sector decreased by 0.08%.
Short term market sentiment: compared with last week, the average daily turnover and turnover rate of major indexes decreased month on month. There is obvious differentiation in the activity of industry transactions. The net capital inflow from the North turned negative. During the week, land stock connect mainly flowed into the top three industries: transportation, banking and power equipment; The net outflow of pharmaceutical, biological, computer and architectural decoration industries is large. The number of shares held by the northbound capital industry increased on a weekly basis. The top three are: transportation, steel and banking; The top three decreases are: architectural decoration, non bank finance and petroleum and petrochemical industry. The implied volatility of SSE 50ETF options decreased by 0.37 percentage points, and the current value is 14.69%; The current value of the standard & Poor’s 500 volatility (VIX) index is 27.75, up 0.39 from the previous value.
Long term market sentiment: the yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 dividend – 10-year Treasury bond is currently – 0.78%, down 0.02 percentage points month on month, above the average and in the historical quantile of 64%; The current value of A-share implied equity risk premium (ERP) is 2.52%, down 0.08 percentage points month on month, in the historical quantile of 78%, and the market risk appetite continues to rise.
Risk tips
Economic downside risk; The epidemic rebound exceeded expectations; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations; Overseas economic recovery is weaker than expected.
