I. summary of this week and configuration suggestions for next week
US retail sales performed strongly in January, and the Fed minutes were less than market hawks expected. The monthly PPI rate of the United States in January announced this week increased by 1% month on month, higher than the expected 0.5% and the previous value of 0.4%; Up 9.7% year-on-year, close to the record high of 9.8% set at the end of last year, indicating that inflationary pressure in the United States continues. In addition, retail sales in January increased by 3.8% month on month, better than the 2% expected by the market and the previous value of - 2.5%. The data show that the purchasing power of American consumers is still strong, but we need to be vigilant about the impact of high inflation on future consumption. In terms of monetary policy, compared with the minutes of the meeting in January, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting this week did not release more hawkish signals, and the market expectation should be mild. Participants are expected to start raising interest rates soon, suggesting that the Fed may raise interest rates in March, but did not disclose whether it is possible to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at a time, and did not mention the possible time and scale of the reduction.
The turmoil in Russia and Ukraine has impacted the global financial market, and the international gold price continues to rise. Boosted by risk aversion triggered by rising geopolitical tensions, the dollar index rose 0.29% to 96.10 on Friday and 0.07% on the week. Non US currencies fell collectively. The euro fell 0.34% to 1.1324 against the US dollar on Friday and 0.22% on the week. The rise in risk aversion and the strength of the US dollar index put pressure on the euro. Sterling fell 0.17% to 1.3591 against the US dollar on Friday, up 0.21% this week. The strong performance of the UK employment data in January released this week further raised the market's expectation of the Bank of England raising interest rates, and the pound was supported to some extent. In the stock market, the tension between Russia and Ukraine continued to suppress risk sentiment, the main stock indexes of the United States and Europe fell across the board, and the three major stock indexes of the United States closed down for the second consecutive week. In terms of commodities, boosted by rising geopolitical tensions, Comex gold futures rose 3.19% to US $1900.8/oz this week, the first time it stood at the 1900 level since June last year. In addition, this week, the optimistic expectation of Iran's nuclear agreement heated up. The market expectation of Iran's possible increase in crude oil supply exceeded the concern of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The US oil contract in April fell 2.77% to US $90.52/barrel, ending eight consecutive weeks of gains.
Inflation is weaker than seasonality, and pork collection and storage may start again. Affected by Festival factors this month, the prices of fresh fruits, aquatic products and fresh vegetables rose one after another, but excluding pig prices, the month on month increase of food CPI was lower than that of seasonality as a whole. In terms of pig prices, the slaughter of live pigs was accelerated before the festival, and the pork price turned negative to - 2.5% month on month. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission monitored that the price ratio of pig grain has entered the "secondary early warning range of excessive decline", saying that it will start the collection and storage of pork reserves as appropriate. Non food CPI rose 0.2% month on month, but the overall increase was lower than that in the same period of previous years. Among them, the increase of travel and return home before the festival supports the travel price of transportation and communication; Affected by the return of migrant workers in some cities and the increase in service demand, the price of domestic service industry has also increased. With the continued favorable promotion of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, driving the decline of coal and steel prices, and superimposing the impact of the decline of tail warping factors, PPI continued to decline year-on-year and month on month. In addition, the recovery of international crude oil prices has led to the recovery of prices in oil related industries. Next, as the prices of major commodities pick up, PPI may turn positive month on month. However, under the influence of a large base, PPI is expected to continue to decline year-on-year.
This week, the Central Bank of China made a net return of 150 billion yuan in the open market. In terms of capital market, the main market indexes recorded an increase on the weekly line this week. The rotation between sectors is still fast, and the sustainability of index performance is weak. The stock index showed a rebound trend at the bottom of the weekly line after the year. The gem weekly line stepped back on the semi annual line, and the track equity week showed a relatively strong rise.
