Looking back on the A-share market last week, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock rebound pattern as a whole. Track stocks fell sharply, and the relay of new and old infrastructure sectors led the rise, prompting the three major stock indexes to rise in shock. However, when the transaction cannot be effectively enlarged, the market trend opportunities still need to be changed by external factors such as policy and capital.
As mentioned in Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , the three forces in the market saw saw saw last week: 1) under the downturn of fund issuance, the performance of the large financial sector was sluggish; 2) Oversold track stocks rebounded; 3) With the support of the policy of steady growth + counting from the east to the west, the performance of traditional infrastructure and new infrastructure continues to be good. Capital: the market contracted and increased, the capital supply was flat, and the public offering of partial shares and the inflow of northward capital slowed down compared with the same period last year.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that last Friday, the market contracted and rose, reaped four consecutive positive results, the market profit-making effect was excellent, the trend of infrastructure related sectors was strong, and the net inflow of funds from the North was maintained, which boosted market confidence. It is expected that the market is expected to continue to stabilize, pay attention to the release of volume and energy and the rotation of sectors . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage Building materials, building decoration, steel and other industries.
In terms of the future market, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that ① the adjustment background and incentives since December 2021 are similar to those in 2021q1, and the disk indicators show that the adjustment has been relatively sufficient. ② Learning from history, the catalyst from value to growth of this round of spring market may come from the policy and the performance forecast of the first quarterly report. ③ This year is similar to 2012. It is a shock city. The best window period in the first half of the year is the steady growth spring market. Short term financial real estate is dominant. In the future, it is expected to switch to new energy and digital economy of new infrastructure .
However, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that at present, the volume of the A-share market is slightly insufficient, and the style is not clear. The impact of the news on the performance of the sector is more obvious and frequent . We believe that this is mainly due to the great differences in investors’ judgment on the future market trend. In the context of the continuous rise of overseas uncertainty risks, China’s continued easing and steady growth and hedging against the downward pressure of the economy, we suggest paying attention to the regression of the epidemic disturbance and some undervalued sectors expected to be repaired in the adjustment of steady growth in the short term, and focusing on the value blue chips with better defense ability in the downward economic environment.
In the medium and long term, the agency further put forward suggestions and investors continue to pay attention to three directions . Consumption sector: medicine and consumption upgrading. Long term high-quality track: carbon neutralization, scientific and technological innovation and new infrastructure. Stable bottom position variety: big finance.
In addition, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that we expect the rebound window of growth stocks to be from late March to April. The reasons are as follows: first, from a macro perspective, April is the marginal mitigation window of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates; Second, from a meso perspective, the successive disclosure of the first quarter forecast in 2022 is expected to boost market sentiment. In 2022, the “three low” configuration still has comparative advantages.
On the macro level, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the steady growth policy has been comprehensively overweight, and the service industry rescue has supplemented the “short board”. The overweight of the policy has promoted the spread of the market, and the concentrated position reduction and position adjustment of investors are coming to an end. The “three bottoms” of have been confirmed in turn, adhering to the main line of the steady growth market and actively arranging .
First of all, the coverage of the recent steady growth policy has been expanding. The upgrading of the manufacturing industry and new infrastructure have helped to make steady progress in investment. The rescue measures for the service industry have accurately pointed to the short board of consumption. The continuous refinement of policies in the future is expected to promote the faster stabilization of consumption.
Secondly, the main line of steady growth in the early stage is more focused on traditional industries that underestimate the value. After the policy diffusion, it is expected that the main line of steady growth will be more diversified, and the value and growth style in the main line of steady growth will be more balanced.
Finally, in the second week after the festival, the market liquidity pressure has been relieved rapidly, the concentrated position reduction and position adjustment of investors are nearing the end, the peak of overseas disturbance factors has passed, the attraction of RMB assets has been further improved, and the policy bottom, market bottom and sentiment bottom have been confirmed in turn. It is suggested to stick to the main line of steady growth and actively layout high-quality blue chips around the “two low positions”.
In terms of operation strategy, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that repeated grinding is more solid, and it is in the strategic allocation period in the medium and long term. In the medium and long term, A-Shares are in the stage of strategic layout. At present, A-Shares have repeatedly shaken and ground the bottom, bringing layout opportunities. First, after nearly two months of release of market sentiment, the risk of A-Shares has been fully released. At present, the overall valuation of A-Shares is reasonable, and the valuation cost performance of some industries has also improved;
Second, at present, China is in the transmission period from broad currency to broad credit. The accelerated implementation of countercyclical control policies in real estate, consumption and infrastructure investment will help China’s growth stabilize gradually;
Third, from the forecast of the annual report of the enterprise, the high boom technology manufacturing industry still has high profitability, and the growth sector that has been greatly adjusted in the early stage also shows signs of rebound after oversold.
In terms of allocation, pays attention to two main investment lines: one is the allocation of varieties with “stable growth” policy, such as “banking, real estate, building materials and construction”; the second is expected to benefit from price increase (price increase), “food and beverage, aquaculture, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) “. In terms of theme, focus on “new energy (vehicles), digital economy, agriculture, rural areas and farmers”, etc.
In addition, Guosheng securities mentioned that structured market has become the norm, performance intensive disclosure, capital will eventually “anchor” the performance of the enterprise, and the growth style will probably return to . The logic of the main line of science and technology is solid and fully adjusted. New infrastructure such as “counting from the east to the west” and blockchain have become the intersection of digital economy and infrastructure construction, which deserves special attention; The consumer sector has been dragged down by weak domestic demand. The epidemic has been repeated and the sector has adjusted greatly. Only defensive configuration is recommended. Promising industries with high prosperity and improved prosperity, the core targets in cloud computing, military civilian integration and green power have outstanding performance, which can be actively concerned.
