Four questions and four answers to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January -- Comments on the minutes of the US FOMC interest rate meeting in January 2022
The minutes of the interest rate meeting in January basically met expectations, including the end of taper in March and the start of interest rate hike as soon as possible, and the pace of interest rate hike and table contraction will be faster than that of the previous round of tightening cycle. At this stage, the categories of rising prices have been relatively wide, and the pressure of rising wages on service prices will continue to rise. CPI is expected to peak in the first quarter and fall in the second quarter, but the decline is slow. We expect that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25bp in March to curb demand and buy time for the repair of the supply chain. In the second half of the year, it will slow down the pace of interest rate increase to ensure policy support for economic recovery.
CPI fell more than expected, and insufficient demand is still the core problem -- Comments on price data in January 2022
CPI fell more than expected in January, which is related to weak terminal demand and over seasonal decline in food prices. PPI continued to decline in January, which is related to the continued effect of China's supply and price stabilization policy under the background of high base, and the weak demand of the construction industry before the festival. Looking ahead, it is expected that the CPI synchronization in the first quarter is still at a low level, and will enter the upward channel after the second quarter. PPI is expected to continue its downward trend during the year. At the same time, under the rising pressure of raw materials in the early stage, the middle and downstream consumer goods industry continues to raise prices, and the profits of middle and downstream enterprises are expected to accelerate the repair in the future.
