On February 18, 2022, it was confirmed that the four major banks dominated by Bank Of China Limited(601988) , Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) , Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) lowered the down payment ratio of individual housing loans in Heze City, Shandong Province, and the down payment ratio of “no house, no loan” buyers decreased from the previous lowest 30% to the lowest 20%. At the same time, the minimum down payment ratio is also divided into 25%, 30% and 40% according to whether there is a house under the name, whether there is a housing loan record and whether the loan record is settled. In addition to Heze, some cities across the country have quietly reduced the interest rate and down payment ratio of the first house loan. For example, many banks in Chongqing and Ganzhou, Jiangxi have reduced the down payment ratio of the first house loan to 20%. All cities in this round of adjustment are non “purchase restricted” cities, which are jointly decided by the local housing and financial functional departments according to the principle of implementing policies according to the city. In addition, according to Yihan think tank, as early as the end of March 2021, some banks in Shandong Tai’an can implement a 20% down payment ratio for families who buy houses for the first time.
Yihan think tank believes that there are two reasons for the relaxation of loan restrictions in non purchase restricted cities dominated by Heze: first, since the beginning of 2022, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development has proposed to “fully release residents’ housing demand”, which is significantly changed from the previous statement of “supporting reasonable housing demand”, and then most third and fourth tier cities made relevant responses, By issuing house purchase subsidies to encourage healthy housing sales activities, Heze, as a third and fourth tier city, the marginal improvement of regulation policies is also expected. Second, the real estate market in such cities has been under great downward pressure recently. Taking Heze as an example, Heze, as an endogenous third and fourth tier city, after the release of the demand brought by the shed reform, the demand is restrained, resulting in the long-term state of price for volume in the real estate market, and the market performance is relatively weak. Although the price of new houses in Heze increased from 6439 yuan / m2 to 6571 yuan / m2 in 2021, and the price increased slightly throughout the year, it has actually fallen back to the market level in 2019. Appropriately relaxing the loan restriction policy is conducive to the steady and healthy development of the market.
At the same time, we believe that the signal value of this policy adjustment is greater than the essence. Although Heze, Chongqing, Ganzhou and other cities have reduced the down payment ratio of commercial loans, considering the urban fundamentals and the current situation of the real estate market, we believe that the relaxation of loan restrictions can promote the local real estate market, but the impact is limited. Simple calculation, combined with the actual situation of local projects on sale, assuming that the total price of new houses is 700000 yuan, 1 million yuan and 1.5 million yuan, the down payment of “no house, no loan” buyers decreased by 70000 yuan, 100000 yuan and 150000 yuan respectively before and after the down payment proportion adjustment. The reduction of down payment will stimulate the demand release of some potential home buyers, but the phenomenon of “Hegang” in low-energy cities is serious. Affected by the income level of local residents, population outflow, the unlimited purchase policy of the city itself and other factors, the actual increase of house purchase demand is limited. In addition, not all “no house, no loan” buyers can enjoy a 20% down payment ratio. The four major banks relax loan restrictions, which are more targeted at buyers with good credit. Therefore, on the whole, Heze’s relaxation of the proportion of down payment for house purchase can promote the just in need improvement groups with excellent credit qualification, but the impact is limited. At the same time, it is undeniable that the reduction of the down payment ratio is a positive signal, especially in terms of commercial loans, which does not rule out the possibility of follow-up in other cities.
It is worth noting that this kind of policy relaxation does not belong to the category of exceeding expectations, but is adjusted based on the national positioning of “housing without speculation”, the goal of “stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations” and the main tone of “implementing policies according to the city”. The notice on issues related to the adjustment of loan policies of individual account parties issued by the central bank in 2016 has clearly stipulated that in cities that do not implement the “purchase restriction” measures, the minimum down payment proportion of the first set of individual housing of resident families can be reduced, and it is allowed to float down by 5 percentage points on the basis of 25% of the minimum down payment proportion; For households with one house and corresponding house purchase loans outstanding, the minimum down payment ratio shall be adjusted to no less than 30%.
