Looking back on Thursday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. After the stock index fluctuated at the beginning of trading, it ushered in a rapid rise again. With the outbreak of resource stocks, the index rose straight and turned red smoothly; In the afternoon, overseas emergencies triggered a rapid diving of the index, and the Shanghai index turned green for a time. Fortunately, the stock index stabilized and rebounded rapidly.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , both the Shanghai Composite Index and the gem index continued to rebound on Thursday. The Shanghai composite index is under pressure on the 20 day moving average and should be careful not to fall in the short term. However, even if there is a return step in the short term, the range is relatively limited, and it will also bring better opportunities for low absorption. the trend of phased bottom building in the market has been relatively obvious. It is recommended that investors grasp the structural rotation opportunity of undervalued value and growth track, and focus on half position rolling operation .
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that the stock index rose slightly on Thursday and achieved three consecutive positive results. However, the market profit-making effect was biased, and the risk aversion increased in the afternoon. However, there was a slight inflow of funds from the north, and the volume of the two markets could be mildly enlarged to boost market confidence, with the gradual repair of market conditions, the market is expected to stabilize. Pay attention to the release of volume and energy and the rotation of sectors , In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, building materials, building decoration, steel and other industries.
As for the future, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that the current stock index is in the stage of secondary decline and contraction shock, hot spots take turns frequently, and the market profit-making effect is not strong. Whether the phased bottom can be found in the future still needs to be verified by many factors. It is suggested to pay close attention to the changes of policy, capital and external market . It is expected that the short-term slight shock of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight consolidation of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) mentioned that when the transaction cannot be effectively enlarged, market stock game characteristics are obvious, the off-site capital wait-and-see mentality is heavy, and the performance of track stocks and cycle stocks turns, but it failed to drive the stock index out of the market. The market trend opportunities still need to be changed by external factors such as policy and capital . It is expected that the stock index is more likely to be slightly sorted out in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the rebound opportunities of undervalued blue chips and track stocks.
Macroscopically, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) believes that it is difficult to significantly ease the upward pressure of US inflation in the first half of but it may have entered the peak stage. It is expected to gradually decline under the influence of high base and marginal decline of energy prices in the second half of the year. However, the decline range is also limited . The key lies in that the crude oil price may maintain a certain toughness at a high level. After the outbreak, the insufficient investment in the global crude oil supply side may limit the release of the overall idle capacity.
In terms of overseas liquidity, the agency further analyzed that the recovery process will still show a trend of tightening before loosening after tightening. The higher than expected inflation data in the UK will also make the Bank of England’s expectation of raising interest rates rise. On the whole, the global liquidity crunch is about to start, and China is still expected to cut interest rates again in the first half of the year, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the effect of China’s steady growth policy on boosting China’s consumption, and then judge the intensity and rhythm of policy easing in the second half of the year .
At present, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) also said that the probability of further deterioration of geopolitical conflict is not high, but the repeated game may continue in the short term, and the current valuation of the military industry sector has a certain allocation advantage , so it is suggested to focus on it.
It is noteworthy that geopolitics has exacerbated overseas fluctuations. However, YueKai securities previously mentioned that A shares are immune to geographical conflicts and the market trend has independent characteristics . From the impact of the “9 / 11 incident” and the Iraq war in 2003, A-Shares have certain immunity to this. For example, in the ten days of the most violent response to the “9 / 11 incident”, the global market fell by more than 10%, but A-Shares fell by less than 3%; One month after the outbreak of the Iraq war in 2003, A-Shares rose 9%, almost leading the world.
In terms of operational strategy, Guosheng securities put forward suggestions and focused on two main lines: first, infrastructure under steady growth. At present, there is great downward pressure on the economy. Since the end of last year, a series of important conferences have continued to demonstrate China’s determination to stabilize growth. Infrastructure, as a government led investment field, is expected to bear fruit in a short term. It will play a pillar role in stabilizing growth in the first half of the year, and the infrastructure boom is expected to improve. the second is the direction of environmental protection . The State Council decided to carry out the third national soil survey from 2022. Before and after the soil survey will drive the demand for a round of soil remediation.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that with the gradual easing of the overseas epidemic, many countries have gradually relaxed epidemic prevention policies, and the global economy is expected to regain its growth momentum in 2022. At the same time, on the basis of the continuous promotion of vaccination and the use of covid-19 specific drugs, the probability of the release of epidemic control restrictions in China is increasing, industries damaged by the epidemic will continue to enjoy the dividend of relief policies, and offline service consumption will meet the opportunity of turning around the dilemma .
The agency also mentioned that suggests paying attention to two main investment lines : 1) the “damaged” offline service consumption in the early epidemic, and there is a large space for profit restoration, such as airlines, airports, cinemas, etc; 2) Commodities that have global pricing power and are difficult to expand rapidly in the short term and benefit from the expectation of global economic recovery, such as copper and other small metals.
In addition, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that continued to recommend undervalued blue chips that focused on the sustained high growth of performance and the performance exceeding expectations after the end of the year of “state-owned enterprise reform”, which was driven by the reform expectations of state-owned enterprises and the related companies maintained the sustained high growth of performance, It is still the direction we continue to be optimistic about.
2) midstream manufacturing sector . Considering the bright investment data of advanced manufacturing industry in 2021, combined with the forecast of the annual report, the subdivided fields of high-end manufacturing, intelligent manufacturing and high technical barriers also deserve continuous attention.
3) in the downstream consumption sector , it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the required consumption related varieties that have a good competition pattern in the industry and can quickly improve the profit margin under the expectation of price increase.
