I. The overseas epidemic situation has gradually eased, and many countries have relaxed epidemic prevention policies. With the increase of vaccination rate and the use of specific drugs, the death rate of covid-19 virus has been reduced compared with the previous one. At present, the death rate of the global epidemic has dropped to about 0.2%. Recently, many overseas countries have relaxed the epidemic prevention restriction policy, many states in the United States have cancelled the mandatory mask order, and the EU, Turkey, Sweden, Russia, Thailand and other countries have liberalized isolation measures or cancelled additional covid-19 virus testing. In China, the current vaccination rate has reached 87.1% (as of February 7, 2022), more than 450 million people have been vaccinated with covid-19 booster shots, and two covid-19 specific drugs have been approved. Subsequently, with the use of covid-19 specific drugs outside China, China's epidemic control restrictions are expected to be gradually liberalized.
2. As the marginal impact of the epidemic weakens, the world is expected to regain its growth momentum. Since the outbreak, major overseas economies have carried out large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus, promoting a sharp rebound in the economy, and the uncertainty index of global economic policy has decreased significantly compared with 2020. 1) At present, the overseas economy is booming, the global manufacturing industry continues to expand, and the manufacturing PMI of major countries is still above the boom and bust line; 2) The labor markets of major countries in the world have been greatly repaired, and the unemployment rates in the United States, Japan, Germany and the euro zone have basically returned to the pre epidemic level; 3) With the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control, the demand for service consumption (aviation, tourism, hotels, catering and entertainment, etc.) is expected to increase, bringing new drivers of global economic growth.
III. China's offline service consumption has great room for repair. In 2021, due to the repeated impact of local epidemics in China, the recovery of consumption was weak, especially the impact on service consumption was still obvious. In 2022, the "damaged" offline service consumption in the early stage has a large profit recovery space. On the one hand, under the precise and normalized epidemic prevention and control, the gradual liberalization of policies will drive the recovery of China's offline consumer demand. The 14th five year plan for tourism development issued by the State Council points out that under the premise of effective control of the international epidemic, inbound tourism will be promoted step by step and outbound tourism will be developed steadily. Recently, inter provincial tourism has been resumed in Henan Province and Yunnan Province, and direct flights between China and the UK are expected to be resumed; In addition, this year's "rescue policy for the affected industries" will be increased.
IV. two main investment lines in the "post epidemic era". With the gradual easing of the overseas epidemic, many countries have gradually relaxed epidemic prevention policies, and the global economy is expected to regain its growth momentum in 2022. At the same time, on the basis of the continuous promotion of vaccination and the putting into use of covid-19 specific drugs, the probability of the release of epidemic control restrictions in China is increasing, the industries damaged by the epidemic will continue to enjoy the dividend of relief policy, and the offline service consumption will meet the opportunity of Dilemma and reversal. It is suggested to pay attention to two main investment lines: 1) the "damaged" offline service consumption in the early stage of the epidemic, and there is a large space for profit restoration, such as airlines, airports, cinemas, etc; 2) Commodities that have global pricing power and are difficult to expand rapidly in the short term and benefit from the expectation of global economic recovery, such as copper and other small metals.
Risk tips:
Repeated outbreaks outside China; The profit of the enterprise is less than expected; Overseas Black Swan incident, etc.
