Resumption: looking back on the development of the energy storage sector in 2021, it is mainly driven by policies and leading companies.
At the end of April 2021, at the policy level, the National Energy Administration issued the guiding opinions on accelerating the development of new energy storage (Exposure Draft); At the company level, the leading energy storage inverter Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) was listed, and the energy storage sector began to rise;
From May to August, at the policy level, the state launched a series of top-level designs, such as the management specification for new energy storage projects (Interim) (Draft for comments), the notice on further improving the time of use price mechanism, and the notice on encouraging renewable energy power generation enterprises to build or purchase peak shaving capacity and increase the scale of grid connection. At the company level, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) The performance of energy storage business of leading companies such as Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) increased significantly, driving the overall sharp rise of the sector.
Valuation: the valuation of the sector has returned to a reasonable range, and the layout value is highlighted.
Since the beginning of 2022, under the background of the market style shift of the Fed’s interest rate increase cycle, as of February 17, the whole energy storage sector has retreated by about 15%. After the correction at this stage, the valuation of the whole sector has returned to a reasonable range. According to our prediction, corresponding to the closing price on February 17, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) PE in 2022 / 2023 is 43 / 30 times; Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) PE is 40 / 30 times in 2022 / 2023.
Space: the high growth trend of the energy storage industry remains unchanged. It is expected that the growth rate of the industry will exceed 100% in 2022.
The energy storage industry is currently in a period of accelerated development, and the development of energy storage outside China has increased significantly. We predict that the global installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage will be about 20-25 / 50 / 80gwh from 2021 to 2023. Compared with other sectors of Dianxin, energy storage is still the segment track with the fastest growth rate.
Policy: this year, the policy side is expected to continue to make efforts in the top-level design and further rationalize the business model of energy storage.
Since the end of 2021, documents on the business model of energy storage have been released at the provincial level: Zhejiang and Ningxia have issued relevant policies to improve the enthusiasm of new energy storage construction through subsidies, and Guangdong has issued the implementation plan for power purchase by power grid enterprises in Guangdong Province (Trial), starting to transmit the energy storage cost to the user side. In the context of double carbon, it is expected that more energy storage policies will be implemented in 2022 to further rationalize the energy storage business model and accelerate the development of the energy storage industry.
Investment suggestions:
Battery link: recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , and pay attention to Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ;
PCs field: recommend Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , focus on Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ;
System integration field: focus on Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) ;
Fire and heat management: focus on Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , Guoanda Co.Ltd(300902) , Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) .
Risk analysis: the cost reduction of energy storage is less than the expected risk; The support of energy storage policy is less than the expected risk.
