Event:
In January 2022, the national consumer price rose by 0.9% year-on-year. Among them, the urban rose by 1.1% and the rural rose by 0.4%; Food prices fell by 3.8% and non food prices rose by 2.0%; Consumer goods prices rose 0.4% and service prices rose 1.7%.
In January, the national consumer price rose by 0.4% month on month. Among them, 0.5% in urban areas and 0.3% in rural areas; Food prices rose by 1.4% and non food prices rose by 0.2%; Consumer goods prices rose 0.5% and service prices rose 0.3%.
Comments:
Eight categories of prices six up and two down
In January, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, affecting the CPI (consumer price index) to decline by about 0.52 percentage points. In food, the price of livestock meat decreased by 25.6%, which affected the decline of CPI by about 1.11 percentage points, of which the price of pork decreased by 41.6%, which affected the decline of CPI by about 0.96 percentage points; The price of fresh vegetables decreased by 4.1%, affecting the decline of CPI by about 0.10 percentage points; Fresh fruit prices rose by 9.9%, affecting CPI by about 0.19 percentage points; The price of aquatic products rose by 8.8%, affecting the CPI rise by about 0.16 percentage points; Egg prices rose by 1.9%, affecting CPI by about 0.01 percentage points; Grain prices rose by 1.6%, affecting the CPI rise by about 0.03 percentage points.
The prices of the other seven categories rose and fell year-on-year. Among them, the prices of transportation and communication, education, culture and entertainment and housing increased by 5.2%, 2.9% and 1.4% respectively, and the prices of medical care, clothing, daily necessities and services increased by 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.4% respectively; The price of other supplies and services decreased by 0.1%.
The CPI is supported by the sustained high energy prices, and the drag of the high base of pig prices on CPI will gradually weaken
The drag of the high base of pig prices on CPI will gradually weaken. Subject to the pig prices in 22 provinces and cities announced by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the pig prices continued to decline in the first half of 2021, from 36 yuan / kg in January to about 13 yuan / kg in June. With the passage of time, the high base effect of pig prices gradually weakened, It is not ruled out that the pig item will gradually turn from the current drag CPI to the upward pull CPI.
The price of crude oil remained at a high level, and the continuous rise of energy prices has been transmitted to the price of consumer goods related to crude oil in CPI. The CPI residential hydropower fuel sub item was 3.5% year-on-year in January, which remained at a high level. The driving effect of traffic and communication sub items on CPI continued to be high. Crude oil prices are at a high level in recent seven years. Before the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine, global oil inventories were tight. After the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine calms down, the global oil inventory will remain tense. At present, the crude oil inventory is at an all-time low, Saudi Arabia has no intention to increase additional production, and March enters the peak of crude oil demand, and high energy prices will last for some time.
In the first half of the year, the tail raising gradually pushed up the CPI. From February to June, the tail raising factor of CPI gradually rose from - 0.21% in February to 0.9% in June. The gradual rise of tail raising factor will also support the CPI.
In February, the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates may fail, but the future reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates can still be expected, and the interest rate will remain low
After the festival, the central bank began to withdraw the liquidity invested before the festival. Last week, the central bank accumulated a net withdrawal of 800 billion yuan. On the 15th, the people's Bank of China announced that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, it carried out 300 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation (including the renewal of the MLF due on February 18) and 10 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation on the same day, and the bid winning interest rates were 2.85% and 2.10% respectively, both unchanged from the previous month. Since the maturity of MLF in February was 200 billion yuan, the central bank implemented 300 billion yuan operation, which means that this month is an incremental continuation. In January, under the condition of Tianliang social financing and credit supply, the probability of comprehensively reducing reserve requirements and interest rates in February decreased.
The total amount of financial data in January is gratifying, but there are still some structural problems. The year-on-year growth of resident loans is less than that of the previous year, and the year-on-year growth rate of M1 slows down, indicating that the financing demand of the real economy is still weak, the improvement of enterprise cash flow is not obvious, and the sustainability of broad credit needs to be verified. Do not rule out the possibility of continuing to cut reserve requirements and interest rates to stimulate demand in the coming months. On the whole, the signal of credit easing has appeared. At present, we have seen the early issuance of special bonds and the development of infrastructure. Although there is marginal relaxation at the real estate end, it is not enough to significantly boost credit. Under the current state, if the credit easing needs to continue to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates in the future, we still need to pay close attention to the changes of monetary policy in the near future.
