Lack of mainline logic, fast switching between long and short commodities
On Monday (February 14), China's commodity futures market closed mostly down, with the black series leading the decline, with iron ore down nearly 7%, hot coil and rebar down more than 3%, and thermal coal down nearly 3%; Most chemicals fell, with urea down nearly 5%, PVC down more than 4% and soda ash down nearly 4%; Crude oil was strong, with low sulfur fuel oil up more than 4%, and fuel oil and crude oil up nearly 4%; Precious metals rose, with both Shanghai silver and Shanghai Gold rising by more than 1%.
Hot comments: at present, China is faced with mixed long and short factors, and the logic of disk trading changes rapidly. From the perspective of overseas environment, on the one hand, with the rising inflation, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening policy continues to rise, the US bond interest rate rises, and the rebound of the US dollar index suppresses risk appetite; On the other hand, the increasingly tense geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated the concern of insufficient global energy supply, and energy products have led this round of commodity rebound. From the perspective of China, on the one hand, steady growth will continue, and the growth rate of infrastructure is expected to pick up, driving the improvement of China's demand for industrial products; On the other hand, the national development and Reform Commission strengthened price monitoring and took regulatory measures for varieties with large increases such as iron ore and coal. On the whole, the commodity lacks the main line logic in the short term, and the fluctuation has increased due to the switching back and forth of long and short factors.
1. Black building materials: policy regulation is heating up, and the fluctuation of black system is increasing.
In January, China's credit soared, indicating that the measures to stabilize growth are accelerating and taking effect. At the same time, during the East Olympic Games, the production of northern steel mills increased, the output rebounded slowly, the accumulated stock of steel was lower than expected, and the fear of insufficient supply continued. However, the national development and Reform Commission has successively held symposiums on ensuring the supply of iron ore and coal, requiring full efforts to ensure the supply and stabilize the market price. On the whole, although the fundamental support is strong, the policy intervention is obviously heating up, and there are long and short factors. The price of black disk fluctuates greatly. It is suggested to wait and see for the time being.
In the medium term, the central bank will open a new round of easing cycle, accelerate the advance force of fiscal policy, accelerate the issuance of special bonds, weaken the impact of superimposed epidemic and rainy and snowy weather, and gradually resume infrastructure and real estate. In addition, with the continuous development of steady growth, real estate will show more soft landing, investment demand is expected to bottom out in the second quarter, and the demand for steel in the peak season is worth looking forward to. Bargain hunting after correction can be considered.
2. Base metal: the US dollar continued to strengthen and the metal was disturbed.
In January, the CPI of the United States further rose to 7.5% year-on-year, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening policy continued to rise. At the same time, the geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine became increasingly tense, the risk aversion increased, and the dollar index strengthened again to suppress metal prices. From the perspective of fundamentals, on the one hand, the TC index rose slightly, and the import business of tons of bagged copper concentrate was resumed successively at Erlianhot railway port. The reopening of the port alleviated the tension at China's mine end in the early stage, and it is expected that the supply of China's Copper mine end will be relatively abundant after the festival; On the other hand, China's steady growth policy will accelerate the advance force, and the old and new infrastructure will become an important starting point. It is expected that there will be strong support for the consumption demand of copper. At present, the global copper inventory continues to go, which brings strong support to the copper price and is expected to remain high and volatile. Precious metals: the geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine remained tense, the market risk aversion increased, and gold rebounded in the short term. However, the US CPI in January rose to 7.5% higher than expected. The expectation of the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening policy is heating up, the US bond interest rate rises above 2%, and the strength of the US dollar index may continue to suppress the rebound space of gold.
3. Energy and chemical industry: the situation in Russia and Ukraine disturbs the market, and the high international oil price fluctuates sharply.
Senior U.S. officials said that Russia is about to invade Ukraine and may create a surprise excuse for the attack. Many NATO countries suggested that their residents evacuate Ukraine faster, which further exacerbated the tension between Russia and Ukraine. Considering that Russia is an important oil and natural producer, international energy prices have risen sharply. However, the Russian foreign minister intended to ease tensions, saying that differences could be resolved through diplomatic negotiations, and the oil price was corrected.
In the future, the global energy demand remains strong. In addition, the supply recovery of some OPEC oil producing countries is not as expected, especially the smaller oil producing countries cannot increase production. The crude oil market remains tense, and the oil price will continue to remain high in the short term. In the follow-up, we need to focus on the impact of geopolitics, Iran nuclear negotiations and OPEC + oil production policy on both ends of crude oil supply and demand.
4. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) : the expectation of output recovery is enhanced, and the oil fluctuates at a high level.
Meidou: USDA released the monthly report, reducing the soybean production in Brazil and Argentina and reducing the soybean inventory at the end of the world period. However, the output and inventory data are higher than those expected by many institutions and markets in South America. At present, the weather in South America is still dry. The superimposed USDA report shows that the export demand of American beans is better, and the CBOT price of American beans is still supported in the short term.
Soybean oil: the monitoring shows that at the end of January, the soybean oil inventory of major oil plants in China was 810000 tons, an increase of 25000 tons over the same period last week, an increase of 30000 tons month on month, a year-on-year decrease of 10000 tons, and a decrease of 200000 tons over the same period in recent three years. With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the soybean crushing volume will rise rapidly, and the soybean oil inventory is expected to continue the upward trend.
Palm oil production decreased by 67.0% in October compared with that in January and February. In addition, according to SGS data, from February 1 to 10, the export volume of horse palm decreased by 6.5% month on month, which was significantly narrowed, indicating that the export demand is improving. However, the news shows that Malaysia will fully liberalize the border in March, and the labor shortage may be improved, which will suppress the price of horse brown.
With the expected resurgence of accumulated reserves and the correction of high crude oil, the short-term support of oil and fat has weakened. However, there are many difficulties in the growth of global oil production and inventory reconstruction. Low production, low inventory and high basis difference are still the main dependence of oil bulls, and the space for downward adjustment is expected to be limited.
