Key investment points:
The central bank continued to make MLF at parity
On February 15, 2022, the central bank launched a 300 billion yuan MLF operation, with an interest rate of 2.85%, which was the same as that in the previous period. On February 18, 200 billion yuan MLF expired. This operation is a continuation of parity excess. Generally speaking, it is basically in line with expectations.
\u3000\u30001. The continuation of excess + parity reflects that monetary policy is still in the loose window period. In the case of no interest rate cut, the excess continuation sent a steady and loose signal to the market to avoid the market's concern about the shift of monetary policy caused by no interest rate cut.
\u3000\u30002. Prediction of subsequent RRR and interest rate cuts. The expiration date of MLF in March is March 15. The Federal Reserve will issue an interest rate resolution on the morning of March 17. Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in March is a high probability time, it means that there is still a window period for interest rate and reserve requirement reduction before the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, but on the whole, the probability of interest rate and reserve requirement reduction in March is decreasing. On the one hand, the maturity scale of MLF every month in the first half of the year is not large. Referring to the law of the central bank's previous reserve requirement reduction to replace MLF, the probability is after August. On the other hand, interest rate cuts may be more likely to be decided according to the actual operation of the economy. If the economy recovers well, maintaining easing may be a more appropriate policy environment than easing and overweight.
The national Standing Committee launched a package of rescue and assistance policies
Premier Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council on February 14 to promote the steady growth of the industrial economy and the relief and development of industries with special difficulties in the service industry.
The meeting pointed out that we should strengthen the reduction and exemption of income tax in industry and service industry. This year, for new equipment and appliances purchased by small, medium-sized and micro enterprises with a value of more than 5 million yuan, one-time pre tax deduction can be made if the depreciation is 3 years, and half deduction can be made if the depreciation is 4, 5 and 10 years. We will extend the tax relief policy for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises in the manufacturing industry. Expand the scope of application of the local "six taxes and two fees" reduction and exemption policy to all small low profit enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. We will guide and strengthen financial services, provide incentive financial support from the central bank, increase inclusive small and micro loans, promote the rapid growth of medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry, and promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises. For catering, retail, tourism, transportation and passenger transport and other industries with special difficulties, we will increase support in phased tax relief and partial social security fee deferment, so as to promote stable employment and consumption recovery.
The meeting emphasized that the pressure on commodity prices should be kept stable and that the supply of commodities should be kept stable. We will ensure food and energy security, ensure a bumper grain harvest throughout the year, increase coal supply, support coal power enterprises to make more efforts, and ensure normal production and people's livelihood.
On the whole, small, medium-sized and micro enterprises in the manufacturing industry and the service industry are relatively affected by the epidemic, and the policy support may continue, which will help promote the steady growth of the industrial economy and the relief and development of the service industry. In addition, since the beginning of the year, coal has been affected seasonally, and the price has rebounded to a certain extent. The national development and Reform Commission held another meeting the day before yesterday. Under the guidance of policies, the superimposed consumption has entered the off-season, and the coal price is expected to fall. The financing balance increased. On February 14, the balance of A-share financing was 1620.957 billion yuan, an increase of 3.017 billion yuan month on month; The balance of margin trading was 1715.889 billion yuan, an increase of 1.843 billion yuan month on month. The balance of financing minus securities lending was 1526.025 billion yuan, an increase of 4.191 billion yuan month on month.
