\u3000\u30001. Huge shock in the market: the adjustment started in mid December 2021 has impacted all market investors. Although its pullback has not yet reached the largest level in history, it is worth considering that the median of public funds has rarely lost compared with CSI 800. The original assumption of loose liquidity buying growth was completely broken, but it was a large number of sectors that seemed to be weakly related to the economy that led the decline. Investors began to realize that the stable development of the old economy will form the basis of new economic growth, and only a healthy social balance sheet can truly provide liquidity for the stock market. At the same time, the interest rate rise driven by overseas inflation is affecting global asset pricing. The style switching of funds going north has a direct impact on the institutional allocation that originally lacked incremental funds and operated with high positions to a certain extent. Whether the market focused "steady growth" can be realized is reflected in the short-term pricing differences, but the fluctuation of short-term credit cycle is only part of the problem. We need to understand the problem from the perspective of emerging long-term changes.
\u3000\u30002. The first problem is "green inflation": carbon neutralization is not just "power and production restriction" and "dual control of energy consumption", but allocates limited resources to relatively inefficient energy in the medium-term Perspective (2022-2030) (although the whole life cycle of new energy may be economical and reduce sustainability risks in the long term, the inefficiency in the short-term dimension is still a fact). The above phenomenon will have a long-term impact on potential output and inflationary pressure when traditional industries have entered high capacity utilization and are naturally depleted. The above contradiction can not be solved simply by "liberalizing and ensuring supply": liberalizing is concentrated in the midstream field, which is actually increasing potential energy consumption; The core of guarantee and supply lies in "improving capacity utilization" ", but it has not solved the problem of capacity investment. The reality is that the vision of the difference and certainty of equity and debt financing costs has changed, and the proximity of carbon neutrality can not support the recovery cycle of some energy, and the price limit policy will reduce the possibility of alleviating the above contradiction in capacity. The global nature of the energy problem also means that the energy price difference and environmental price difference will be beneficial to China Create continuous pressure.
\u3000\u30003. The second is the seemingly fragmented "strike" since the epidemic "The logic behind the phenomenon is noteworthy: there may be misjudgment in reducing inflation through aging based on the experience of Europe and Japan. The important force to reduce inflation is a large number of immigrants and cheap labor from China. The developed countries represented by the United States have ended the growth of the working population, while the epidemic has accelerated the process of reducing immigrants, and the low-income and middle-income people have improved their bargaining power "China's willingness is ignited by the government's transfer payment. China and other markets also face this problem: even commodities imply this logic, which can be understood as the payment of wages to the working population of resource countries; in China, we are more proactive, and we re mention" common prosperity "in response to this long-term change. In 2011, The wages of migrant workers accelerated after the downward inflection point of the growth of the number of migrant workers, and the number of migrant workers has entered a negative growth range recently. We have reason to believe that the income differentiation since 2016 needs more adjustment, and the low and medium-sized labor force needs more distribution in growth.
\u3000\u30004. Different from the traditional demand cycle perspective, inflation has become the cause of interest rates, rather than interest rates suppressing inflation. Under the two major effects, we understand that inflation has more sources of cost impact. In the past cycle, inflation has become an unimportant factor because it has little impact on the change of nominal interest rate; In the case of large inflation differences and amplified fluctuations, the real interest rate between the two countries has become a more important focus. China's current policy of stable interest rate growth does not lose the space of the highest real interest rate in history. When we understand the above two changes, we will find that it is precisely because China's low inflation level creates space for our current steady growth policy. But the decline in potential output will in turn make inflation a greater constraint.
\u3000\u30005. When the stabilization of the aggregate economy becomes important and the inflationary pressure is emerging, the whole market will recognize the importance of the old economy again, which constitutes the basis of value return. At this time, investors will be pleasantly surprised to find that although the Chinese market seems to have experienced a bull market for three years, China's value stocks are at a low level in the world, and their valuation quantiles and relative growth stocks are highly cost-effective, even compared with China's comparable assets represented by REITs. Unfortunately, but fortunately, the above varieties are not the preferred varieties of the institutional bull market in the past, just like the TMT sector in 2012, food and beverage in 2015 and power equipment in 2018. At the same time, from the perspective of incremental funds, the preference of "fixed income +" funds brought by financial net worth is different from that of stock public funds. They have reflected their preference for finance and cyclical industries.
\u3000\u30006. The biggest opportunity in the future is beyond the consensus, which will be different from the market dominated by the core track in the past. It should be emphasized that avoiding institutions is not simply starting from the game. On the contrary, it is precisely because the effective pricing of the past era by the whole market institutional investors in the past 3-5 years has fully discovered the value of the past economic fundamentals. As the current environment changes again, more attention should be paid to the traditional economy and the forgotten corners of the past. Our most promising direction lies in the resource cycle and finance. Among them, the certainty of long inflation will be stronger than the demand itself: nonferrous metals (copper, gold, aluminum), crude oil (oil and gas exploitation, oil transportation) and coal; Banking, real estate, construction, steel. As the current situation of low - and middle-income people gets more attention, the consumption of Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) will also appear. We pay attention to the middle and low-end, second-line and regional brands. Despite the possibility of periodic rebound of growth stocks, we still suggest that the direction should be on the path of the above fundamentals, among which the relatively dominant ones are energy construction (green power and power grid) and the digital economy to ease the contradiction of inflation.
\u3000\u30007. Risk warning: the direction and intensity of global monetary policy implementation are inconsistent with the assumptions; The implementation of China's steady growth policy was less than expected; The trend of population change has changed greatly; Measurement error.
