Events
On February 16, the National Bureau of statistics released data that in January 2022, the national consumer price rose by 0.9% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and increased by 0.4% month on month; In January 2022, the ex factory prices of industrial producers in China rose by 9.1% year-on-year, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month and down 0.2% month on month.
Comments
The decline in food prices pushed down the year-on-year growth rate of CPI. In January, CPI rose 0.9% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year increase of this month contracted more, and the decline of food prices and the decline of price growth of energy products still have a significant impact on the decline of CPI. From the month on month data, CPI rose by 0.4% month on month, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the previous month, mainly due to the month on month rise in the prices of fresh fruits, aquatic products and fresh vegetables affected by the Spring Festival, and the travel before the festival also led to the rise in the prices of vehicles.
Focusing on the structure, in January, the price of food items decreased by 3.8% year-on-year from 1.2% in the previous month, an increase of 2.6 percentage points over the previous month, affecting the decline of CPI by about 0.72 percentage points, of which pork price is the main influencing factor. From the year-on-year data, pork prices fell 41.6% in January, an increase of 4.9 percentage points over the previous month; On a month on month basis, the winter curing was basically over, coupled with the acceleration of the slaughter of live pigs before the festival, the supply of pork was sufficient, and the pork price decreased by 2.5%. However, it is expected that the pork price will drive the CPI rise after the second quarter.
In addition to food items, the prices of other seven categories of CPI in January increased by four, leveled by one and decreased by two, of which the price of transportation and communication increased by 1.1% month on month. On the one hand, affected by the rise in international energy prices, the prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas rose by 2.2%, 2.4% and 1.5% respectively, all from the decline of last month to the rise. In addition, affected by the return of migrant workers in some cities and the increase in service demand, the prices of domestic services, mother and child care services and hairdressing have increased, with an increase of 2.6% – 9.1%.
The year-on-year increase of PPI continued to fall. PPI rose 9.1% year-on-year in January, down 1.2 percentage points from last month. Indonesia is the largest importer of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal. Indonesia previously restricted coal exports or affected the global coal supply. As China’s supply guarantee policy is still strong, the current supply and demand situation is good, and the downstream inventory is at a high level, which has an impact on China’s coal price recently, but the rise is limited. After the 15th day of the first month, the coal mines in the producing area will resume production, and the coal supply will return to a high level. Coupled with the rise of temperature and the decline of coal demand, the coal price will fall back to a reasonable range in the later stage. The price of means of production rose by 11.8% and fell by 1.6 percentage points; The price of means of subsistence increased by 0.8%, and the increase fell by 0.2 percentage points, and the cost side pressure of industrial enterprises was relieved.
From the perspective of specific industries, 36 industries showed price increases, and the price increases of major industries shrank. In January, the prices of mining, raw materials and processing rose by 35.0%, 18.2% and 7.0% respectively, showing a sharp decline. Although the power of China’s policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has significantly reduced coal prices, under the influence of the epidemic, the import volume of Indian coal has continued to decline, and the short-term increment of Mongolian coal import is limited. The supply and demand pattern of coal, especially coking coal, still needs attention. Under the influence of the global energy crisis, commodity prices are still the main factor driving up the price of industrial products.
Risk tips: the overseas epidemic fluctuates more than expected, the downstream demand is less than expected, and the monetary policy changes.
