Event: according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the CPI in January 2022 was 0.9% year-on-year, the previous value was 1.5%, and - 0.3% year-on-year; In January, the PPI was 9.1% year-on-year, the former value was 10.3%, and the same period last year was 0.3%.
Main points:
In January, the year-on-year increases of CPI and PPI are now down. The downward increase of CPI is mainly due to the weak price trend of pork and vegetables before the Spring Festival this year, and the current overall consumption is still in a downturn; The downward rise of PPI more reflects the effect of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price in the early stage.
In terms of CPI, the year-on-year increase of CPI in January continued to fall significantly. Taking into account the downward trend of the price base in the same period of last year, the decline in CPI in January was mainly due to the weak price trend at the beginning of the year, of which the expansion of the decline in food prices was an important reason, and the year-on-year downward drag on pork and vegetable prices was obvious. In terms of non food prices, the rise of industrial consumer goods prices fell in January, while the rise of service prices rose slightly, which was at a moderate level as a whole, highlighting the current sluggish consumption and the difficulty of transmitting the higher PPI rise to downstream consumer terminals.
In terms of PPI, the rise of international oil prices in January has played a certain role in boosting PPI. However, due to the low or further decline of China's coal, steel, cement and other commodity prices, PPI continued the momentum of month on month decline and relatively rapid decline in the same month. In terms of categories, the month on month decline of PPI of means of production and various sub items in January converged, among which the PPI of raw material industry returned to positive month on month; Year on year growth continued to fall, but the rate of decline was slower than that of the previous month. In January, the month on month increase of PPI of means of living was 0.0% for the second consecutive month, and the year-on-year increase fell slightly to 0.8% from 1.0% last month, indicating that China's consumer demand was sluggish, resulting in the lack of demand side support for the rise in the price of means of living.
Looking forward to the future, there may be a differentiation trend of "one rise and one fall" between CPI and PPI in February. Among them, CPI is expected to rise slightly year-on-year, but it will still be at a low level of about 1.2%; The CPI growth center will move up slightly in 2022, but the risk of approaching the 3.0% control target is small. Taking into account the trend of international crude oil prices and China's industrial prices, as well as the change of PPI tail warping factors, it is expected that the year-on-year increase of PPI in February will continue to fall to about 8.4%, and it is expected to continue to be high and downward during the year.
