The financial data in January exceeded expectations, which was conducive to the stabilization and recovery of the economy. The growth rate of M2 rebounded to 9.8%, returning to a relatively high level in recent years. The scale of social financing reached 6.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, 1.12 trillion yuan higher than that in 2021 and higher than market expectations. From the breakdown data, RMB loans, corporate bonds and government bonds increased significantly, while entrusted loans, trust loans and other non-standard financing continued to be compressed, showing negative growth. The improvement of social finance data is mainly due to two reasons: first, the central bank has continuously reduced the LPR interest rate, reduced the financing cost of the real economy and improved the financing willingness of enterprises; Second, the government actively promoted the counter cyclical policy. Governments at all levels actively promoted new construction, moderately relaxed the real estate financing, and the effect of the steady growth policy was obvious. The rebound in the growth rate of social finance is conducive to supporting the stabilization and recovery of the economy.
The central bank was more cautious in judging the economic situation, and the tone of monetary policy was slightly adjusted. The central bank's monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2021 is more pessimistic about China's economy. It is believed that "medium and long-term challenges such as potential economic growth decline, population growth slowdown and low-carbon transformation can not be ignored". For overseas economies, it is considered that "inflation in major developed economies has risen, supply bottlenecks have not been effectively alleviated, the Federal Reserve said it would raise interest rates and shrink tables, and the risk of global cross-border capital flows and financial market adjustment has increased". In terms of policy tone, it no longer emphasizes "focusing on me", and believes that "give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, pay attention to sufficient force, accurate force and forward force, not only do not engage in" flood irrigation ", but also meet the reasonable and effective financing needs of the real economy". Pay attention to the financing of the real economy, "maintain the stable growth of the total amount of money and credit" and "cultivate and stimulate the credit demand of the real economy".
High inflation in the United States and the crisis in Russia and Ukraine may lead to global market turmoil. The US CPI continued to climb to 7.5% in January, exceeding the market expectation of 7.3%, once again setting the largest growth rate since March 1982. The inflation data continued to rise, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt more aggressive policies. The market's probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March is 99%; The market also expects to increase interest rates by 100 basis points in the next three meetings and 160 basis points in total by December. The aggressive policy of the Federal Reserve may trigger a correction in global markets. Meanwhile, the crisis in Ukraine continues to heat up. Sullivan said that Russia now has enough military strength to launch large-scale military operations against Ukraine and may launch attacks at any time. Any American should leave Ukraine in the next 24-48 hours. The war between Russia and Ukraine may lead to the rise of risk aversion in the market.
Investment suggestion: the steady growth policy promotes the good performance of some industries, but under the multiple bad conditions such as the economic downturn, the US interest rate hike and the Russian Ukrainian crisis, the rebound strength may be limited and the sustainability of the market rebound is not strong. It is suggested that the position be reduced to 60%, focusing on the sectors benefiting from stable growth, stable market and Russian Ukrainian crisis, such as building materials, non bank, petroleum and petrochemical.
Risk warning: the policy and economic data are not as expected, and the risk events impact the market liquidity.
