Double financing balance
As of February 10, the two financial balances of Shanghai Stock Exchange reported 915.993 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.296 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day; The two financial balances of Shenzhen Stock Exchange reported 805.359 billion yuan, an increase of 159 million yuan over the previous trading day; The two cities totaled 172.352 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.136 billion yuan over the previous trading day.
Latest views
The index rose mainly on Thursday and narrowly on the whole day. The gem index fell by up to 3%, and the bottom reading funds entered the market at the end of the day, and the decline gradually narrowed. As of the closing, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.73%, the gem index fell 1.98%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.26%, the Kechuang 50 fell 1.83%, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.18% and the China composite 500 fell 0.04%. The number of gainers in the two cities was 1693, lower than the average value of 1734 last week and 3489 in the previous trading day. The limit was 69, higher than the average value of 48 last week and lower than 114 in the previous trading day. The number of decliners in the two cities was 2762, lower than the average value of 2795 last week and higher than 965 in the previous trading day. The number of drop limits was 8, lower than the average value of 69 last week and higher than 7 in the previous trading day. Northbound funds had a net inflow of 4.521 billion yuan, with an average net outflow of 5.214 billion yuan last week and a net inflow of 485 million yuan the previous trading day. The turnover of the two cities was 937.269 billion yuan, with an average value of 848.675 billion yuan last week and 932.768 billion yuan the previous trading day. In January, the stock of social finance increased by 10.5% year-on-year (the previous value was 10.3%), with an increase of 6.17 trillion yuan, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, a monthly statistical high, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of total amount, the credit data in January was very bright. The policy force is obvious, and the expectation of the market from stable credit to wide credit is implemented. For a shares, for each round of wide credit cycle, the probability ushers in valuation expansion. Therefore, from the perspective of liquidity, it supports the gradual improvement of a shares. Externally, however, the US CPI hit a new high, and the market is worried about the Fed’s interest rate hike in March, thus continuing to depress the risk appetite in the market.
Topic tracking
Today’s focus: tourist hotels, digital economy, pig breeding
1. Theme of Tourist Hotels: on January 20, the State Council proposed in the tourism development plan of the 14th five year plan that under the condition of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, innovate and improve China’s tourism, timely start the promotion action of inbound tourism, issue the support policy for inbound tourism development, size up the situation and take effective measures to promote the high-quality development of inbound tourism. Although the short-term epidemic is still sporadic, with the orderly promotion of covid-19 vaccine and specific drugs and the maturity of precise control and epidemic prevention policies, “Winter Olympics effect” and other factors have spawned tourism demand. It is expected that the tourism hotel consumer market will show a recovery trend in 2022. Suggestions: Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) (000796), Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) (603136)
2. Theme of Digital Economy: on January 12, the State Council issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of digital economy. The plan clearly puts forward the development goals. By 2025, the added value of the core industries of the digital economy will account for 10% of GDP, the ability of digital innovation to lead development will be greatly improved, the integration of digital technology and the real economy has achieved remarkable results, the digital economy governance system will be improved, and the competitiveness and influence of China’s digital economy will be steadily improved. With the continuous promotion of digital RMB and the active transformation of various industries to digital, the future of digital economy can be expected. Suggested attention: Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) (300674), Digital China Information Service Company Ltd(000555) (000555)
3. Pig breeding theme: Although the feed cost has dropped slightly, it is still at a high level. Pig production and pork supply are expected to increase in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the demand is gradually weakened, and the imbalance between supply and demand makes the current pig price still at a low level in the market, with a downward trend of shock. It is expected that the pig market will still be in a downward cycle in the first half of 2022, and the industry valuation will be at an all-time low. However, under the influence of low pig prices, the elimination of fertile sows is accelerated, the market is expected to start a bottom rebound in the middle of the year, and there is an expectation of performance improvement in the pork sector. Suggested attention: Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) (603363), Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) (002714)
Risk tips
The epidemic has not been effectively controlled, the macro economy has unexpectedly declined, the liquidity crunch has intensified, and the industrial policies are lower than expected.
