I. what is the performance forecast of the annual report?
Performance disclosure: as of February 9, a total of 2550 companies in a have disclosed performance forecasts in their 2021 annual reports. The disclosure rate of performance forecasts in a is 54%, which is better than that in the same period of 2019 and 2020 (47.4% and 51.6%), and the prediction rate of disclosure enterprises is 57.9%. The disclosure proportion of the performance forecast of the main board / gem / Sci-tech Innovation Board / Beijing stock exchange was 52.4% / 64.2% / 46% / 10.7% respectively, and the prediction rate was 55.9% / 59.2% / 70.9% / 100% respectively. By industry, the disclosure rate: upstream raw materials > technology and some consumer sectors > financial real estate chain and midstream and downstream manufacturing sectors.
The sectors with high performance growth are concentrated in upstream raw materials, new energy, household appliances, medicine and finance.
The performance forecast exceeded expectations, including non bank finance, banking, household appliances and coal.
II. How about the repair of consumption during the Spring Festival?
Travel, tourism and consumption data are relatively flat during the Spring Festival, and there is still a long way to go to boost consumption.
(1) travel and Tourism: the number of tourists and income in the Spring Festival decreased year-on-year, and the recovery rate before the epidemic was at a low level. The total amount of spring transportation in 2022 is expected to increase by about 50% year-on-year, but it is still lower than the level before the epidemic. The number of trips recovered to 73.9% in the same period in 2019, which was marginally recovered compared with the National Day data in 2021, mainly short-distance trips.
(2) consumption: the margin of year-on-year growth of online platform transaction data is lower, the prosperity of catering industry is differentiated among regions, and the performance of prefabricated dishes is bright. According to the statistics of the online connection platform, five days before the Spring Festival holiday this year, the online connection platform handled 6.236 billion inter agency online connection payment transactions with an amount of 4.20 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and 11.6% respectively, both lower than the year-on-year growth of 17.9% and 12.7% during the new year’s day.
(3) films: the box office and movie viewing attendance of the Spring Festival were lower than expected, mainly due to the rapid rise in prices. According to the data of Lighthouse professional edition, the box office of the Spring Festival in 2022 (from the first day to the sixth day) reached 6.019 billion yuan, the number of film viewers reached 114 million, and the average ticket price was 52.8 yuan. This year’s Spring Festival box office is slightly higher than that in 2019, but only 76.9% of that in the same period in 2021; The average ticket price is the highest in history, and the number of film viewers is the lowest since 2018.
The recovery of consumption data during the Spring Festival is relatively flat, reflecting that residents may be more cautious about spending under the slowdown of household income growth and the transmission of price rise to the middle and lower reaches. After the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the recovery of Chinese residents’ income is slow. In 2021, the income of urban residents increased by 5.9% year-on-year, which is still significantly lower than the level before the epidemic. With the convergence of ppicpi scissors difference, the pressure of price rise began to gradually transmit downward. Therefore, in 2022, we may expect whether the consumption promotion policy can play a role in stabilizing the economy.
At present, it is in the transmission stage from broad credit to economic repair. In January, social finance exceeded expectations, and the broad credit and stable growth expectations were further confirmed. We previously resumed the relatively dominant stage of value blue chips since 2010. We found that the market was mainly catalyzed by policy easing in the early stage. If the subsequent economic data can confirm the expectations, the market value style may continue. We believe that the current market style is still underestimating the value of blue chips, mandatory consumer goods with rigid demand in the consumer sector, and stable varieties or relatively superior ones.
III. how to see the investment opportunities of consumption segments? (fan Jinsong of Zhongtai food, Chen Li of Zhongtai real estate, Kang Yawen of Zhongtai Internet media)
Food and beverage: Baijiu Spring Festival sales market to accelerate the concentration of famous liquor, brand differentiation. The Spring Festival sales of Baijiu will last until the first month, and many epidemic situations are effectively controlled. The consumption of part of the loss before the festival may be compensated after the festival. It is predicted that the sales of the famous spring festival wine will keep growing. In the future, high-end wine will continue to make progress in stability; The nationalization of sub high-end liquor continues to be promoted, and the performance of the sector is gradually differentiated; The structure of regional leaders will be upgraded, and the elasticity of future performance will continue to be released. Maowu is the main high-end leader, and the regional sub high-end leader continues to exceed expectations.
Recommended combination in February: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . According to the change of combination logic, Maotai and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) with stable dynamic sales under the epidemic situation are recommended, as well as Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , which are less affected by the epidemic situation and both payment and dynamic sales continue to exceed expectations. In terms of food, it is recommended to actively pay attention to Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) of the layout of restaurant stewed flavor and Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) of the expected profit elasticity.
2. Real estate: the core factor in the transaction of real estate stocks lies in policy expectations. Under the condition that the current real estate market continues to decline beyond expectations, we continue to be optimistic about the stock price performance of real estate stocks in Panasonic with the continuous easing of local policies. In January, the real estate market continued to decline, and the equity sales scale of the top 100 real estate enterprises fell by more than 40% year-on-year. The market downturn was mainly caused by the weak situation of supply and demand. Under the expectation that the real estate sector will usher in the continuous improvement of policies in 2022, the competition pattern of head real estate enterprises will be optimized, the apparent profit margin of superimposed income statement will hit the bottom and rise, and the stock of head real estate enterprises will continue to deduce the logic of “the winner is the king”.
Three main lines are recommended: 1) leading real estate enterprises under the structural differentiation of financing environment: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; 2) Regional deep ploughing private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; 3) High rated and stable private enterprises: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) . Focus on leading real estate enterprises Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , and China’s overseas development.
3. Internet media: the hot topics of the media during the Spring Festival are mainly divided into three parts: Spring Festival file, NFT and virtual human.
(1) Spring Festival file: China Film Co.Ltd(600977) the market is still in the recovery period after the impact of the epidemic from the perspective of content supply and film viewing behavior, so we need to pay attention to the overall recovery trend. The core of the film is the quality of the content. It is suggested to focus on the investment opportunities brought by the concentration of some key schedules. At the same time, we are optimistic about the improvement of film viewing benefits brought by high-quality film content. It is suggested to pay attention to Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) , Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) , China Film Co.Ltd(600977) , Shanghai Film Co.Ltd(601595) , etc.
(2) NFT field. We think the future is based on Web3 0, which can be read, written and owned by users will become the mainstream development trend. The uniqueness and non tampering and copying of blockchain technology is conducive to the copyright confirmation of digital assets. NFT is the core embodiment of digital assets on the chain, and can be bound with commodities in real life. It is suggested to focus on two main lines of NFT Investment: companies with NFT online platform operation capability: Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) , Three’S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) ; Relevant companies with content copyright to launch NFT digital assets: Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) , Alpha Group(002292) , Zhejiang Huace Film And Tv Co.Ltd(300133) .
(3) virtual human field. We believe that virtual human is one of the representations of digital assets in the future. With the emergence of super realistic virtual human, it has the opportunity of business value revaluation. It is suggested to pay attention to three main lines of virtual human investment: 1) relevant companies with virtual human IP operation capability: Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) ; 2) Digital marketing companies with rich advertiser resources: Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) , Hylink Digital Solution Co.Ltd(603825) , Zhewen Interactive Group Co.Ltd(600986) ; 3) Related companies that can provide virtual human creation technical support: Beijing Jetsen Technology Co.Ltd(300182) .
Risk warning: the representativeness of data samples is limited, the risk of data measurement deviation, and the public information used in the research report may be delayed or not updated in time
