Capital flow analysis

Focus on the banking sector

The total net outflow of large funds was 30.6 billion yuan, 200 million yuan less than that of the previous trading day. According to the statistics of wind financial terminal, 26 of the 134 industry sectors of Shenwan secondary industry (2021) have net inflow, and the number of net inflow sectors is 5 less than that of the previous trading day. The top five sectors of the net inflow are: Baijiu 1 billion 294 million yuan, energy metal 937 million yuan, battery 424 million yuan, agricultural products 189 million yuan, motor 171 million yuan; The top five sectors of net outflow are: Securities – 6.795 billion yuan, communication equipment – 1.47 billion yuan, it services – 1.422 billion yuan, electricity – 1.364 billion yuan and real estate development – 1.045 billion yuan.

It is suggested to pay attention to the banking sector. The specific analysis is as follows:

1) the central economic work conference stressed that the economic work in 2022 should be “stable and make progress while maintaining stability”, and required to “actively launch policies conducive to economic stability”. Infrastructure investment, real estate deviation correction and double carbon economy in 2022 are expected to drive wide credit.

2) with steady growth, the banking sector is expected to form a DDM numerator denominator resonance market. At the molecular end, under the wide credit, the bank’s revenue is compensated by volume, and the bad pressure on the cost end is relieved; At the denominator end, the improvement of economic expectation leads to the improvement of risk assessment.

3) recommendations: Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) .

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