Key investment points:
New infrastructure under the framework of "steady growth"
At the end of 2021, the central economic work conference set the tone of "stability first". Under the situation of triple pressure on the economy, macroeconomic policies focused on stabilizing growth in an all-round way. Aiming at the sound and effective macro policies, the meeting proposed "moderately advance infrastructure construction". "New infrastructure" mainly includes three aspects: first, information infrastructure, such as communication network infrastructure represented by 5g, Internet of things, industrial Internet and satellite Internet, and new technology infrastructure represented by artificial intelligence, cloud computing and blockchain; Second, integrated infrastructure, mainly refers to the integrated infrastructure formed by the deep application of Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies to support the transformation and upgrading of traditional infrastructure, such as intelligent transportation infrastructure; The third is innovation infrastructure, which refers to the infrastructure with public welfare attributes supporting scientific research, technological development and product development, such as major scientific and technological infrastructure, industrial technological innovation infrastructure, etc. In terms of specific areas, the meeting of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in March 2020 pointed out seven areas: 5g infrastructure, UHV, intercity high-speed railway and intercity rail transit, charging pile of new energy vehicles, big data center, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet.
Sorting out the subdivided areas of infrastructure
(1) real estate: since September 27, 2021, the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee proposed "two maintenance" (maintaining the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers), the real estate policy has shown obvious marginal improvement. Previously, due to pessimistic market expectations, the industry valuation was at a low level and had a high margin of safety; (2) UHV: before 2030, Fengguang base has planned a total installed capacity of about 400-500 million KW, and each UHV can transmit 8 million kw of power. According to a conservative estimate of 50% of the outward transmission ratio, it needs nearly 30 UHV channels. According to the average investment of 25 billion yuan, UHVDC will form a market scale of about 750 billion yuan in the next 10 years, with an average annual investment of 75 billion yuan; (3) Charging pile: the fast-growing new energy vehicle market has increased the demand for charging pile level and vehicle pile ratio. It is estimated that by 2025, the ownership of new energy vehicles is expected to reach the conservative 3:1 calculation. By 2025, the market space of charging piles is expected to be close to the level of 10 million units, an increase of 2.6 times compared with that in 2021, and the four-year CAGR is 38.4%; (4) Hydrogen energy: at present, hydrogen energy is at the key node of "0-1" breakthrough in industrial scale, and has become an important part of new energy infrastructure. It is expected that the annual sales scale of hydrogen fueled commercial vehicles will reach 10000 vehicles by 2025, and the market space will be 10 billion. By 2030, the annual sales scale is expected to reach 100000 vehicles, and the market space is expected to reach nearly 100 billion; (5) Green power: in 2022, the power supply and demand will be balanced, and the electricity price will maintain an upward trend in the long term. According to the calculation of the national power supply and demand form by China Power Council in 2022, it is expected that the power consumption of the whole society will be 8.7-8.8 trillion kwh in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 5% - 6%, and the growth rate of power consumption in each quarter is generally increasing quarter by quarter; (6) New medical infrastructure: some new hospitals have been started in 2020, but most of them are emergency projects catalyzed by the epidemic. The long-term new medical infrastructure planning that truly considers the "combination of epidemic prevention and treatment" from the end of 2020 to the beginning of 2021 has been officially launched. The basic public health construction system of medical equipment is the last bottom line to protect people's life safety.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation repeatedly exceeded expectations; The effect of global policy is less than expected; Industrial technology replacement exceeds expectations; Data quality problems.
