Key investment points:
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still playing out, and the US oil price hit a seven-year high
According to Xinhua news agency, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on the 14th that Russia would continue its dialogue with the United States and NATO on security issues. Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Lavrov on the same day on the issue of security. Lavrov said that the U.S. response to Russia’s security proposals, especially those related to Russia’s core concerns such as the cessation of NATO expansion, the non deployment of strike weapons near the Russian border, and the restoration of military infrastructure in Europe to the state when Russia and NATO signed the basic relationship document in 1997, cannot satisfy Russia. Russia will continue to promote dialogue with the West on the “practical” aspects of security issues, and continue to ask it to answer Russia’s questions on security.
In addition, in response to Putin’s relevant questions, Lavrov said that Russia still has the opportunity to reach an agreement with the West on security. Russia is continuing to explain relevant issues and hopes that the West will go in the opposite direction and put forward relevant opinions, but the relevant dialogue can not be carried out endlessly.
On the same day, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu told Russian President Vladimir Putin that the large-scale military exercise of the Russian navy was coming to an end. After the exercise, the military forces of all military regions and fleets will return to their respective stations.
Recently, Russia Ukraine relations have continued to be tense, and the two sides have deployed a large number of military personnel and weapons and equipment in the border areas of the two countries. The United States, Ukraine and NATO claim that Russia has gathered heavy troops near the eastern border of Ukraine and has the potential of “invasion”. Russia denied it and stressed that NATO activities threatened Russia’s border security and that Russia has the right to mobilize troops within its territory to defend its territory.
On the whole, under the situation of continuous tension and uncertainty in Russia and Ukraine, the fermentation of geopolitics may still have a significant impact on energy prices. Since the beginning of 2022, US oil futures have risen from US $75 / barrel to about US $95 / barrel. Last night, it rose to above US $95, a new high since 2014. Behind the situation in Russia and Ukraine is actually the game between the United States, the European Union and Russia. In addition, Biden will face the pressure of the mid-term election this year. When China’s policy is not advancing smoothly and faces high inflation, it is necessary to transfer the political pressure. In the short term, the friction between Russia and Ukraine may continue, but we believe that the possibility of large-scale war is relatively small. The CPI of the United States has repeatedly reached a new high, rising to 7.5% in January, a 40 year high. The United States and China may not be able to withstand the sharp rise in oil prices caused by the intensification of geopolitics, which will further push up inflationary pressure.
The financing balance decreased. On February 11, the balance of A-share financing was 1617.94 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 6.209 billion yuan; The balance of margin trading was 1714.046 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.300 billion yuan month on month. The balance of financing minus securities lending was 152.1834 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 5.117 billion yuan.
Net outflow of land stock connect and Hong Kong stock connect. On February 14, the net purchase transaction of land stock connect on that day was -3.788 billion yuan, including 47.824 billion yuan of purchase transaction and 51.612 billion yuan of sales transaction, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of 1658.308 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock connect had a net purchase transaction of HK $2.476 billion on the same day, including a purchase transaction of HK $12.659 billion and a sale transaction of HK $15.135 billion, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of HK $2231.244 billion.
Money market interest rates rose. On February 14, Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank offered rate Shibor overnight interest rate was 1.8660%, up 5.40bp, Shibor week was 2.0230%, up 0.20bp.
