The US dollar index rose slightly, the interest rate difference between China and the United States narrowed sharply first and then rebounded, Ted interest rate difference widened, and China’s capital is loose as a whole. The US dollar index rose slightly last week (20207-20211). As of February 8, 2022, the net long position of US dollar decreased. The interest rate difference between China and the United States narrowed sharply first and then rebounded, the nominal / real interest rates of US bonds rose first and then fell significantly, and inflation expectations rebounded slightly. Overseas, Ted interest rate spread has widened, but it remains low, and the financial liquidity in the United States is still abundant; For China, inter-bank funds are generally loose, liquidity stratification is eased, and term spreads (10y-1y) continue to widen. In terms of trading heat, the trading heat of most industries has increased, among which the trading heat and volatility level of the coal sector have risen to a historically high level, which may require further attention in the future; In terms of research, electronics, computers, medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, nonferrous metals, household appliances, new electricity, building materials and other sectors rank first.
Northbound configuration / trading has not stabilized yet, and the value sectors represented by finance, nonferrous metals, construction, power and utilities, transportation, etc. have been the internal consensus of northbound. Last week (20207-20211), the net purchase of northward allocation was 4.721 billion yuan, and the net purchase of northward trading was 8.619 billion yuan. On a daily basis, the northward allocation sector first changes from net selling to net buying, and then sells again; In the northbound trading, it chooses to sell on Tuesday (20208) and Wednesday (20209) and buy on other trading days. In the industry, the differences between the trading sector and the configuration sector continue to increase. The consensus is to net buy banking, non-bank, nonferrous metals, electronics, construction, power and utilities, transportation, food and beverage and other industries, while net sell computer, automobile, chemical industry, steel, coal and other industries. In terms of style, the northward configuration / trading sector net buys the large / medium market value sector, while there are differences between the small market value and the growth sector. For the top three heavyweight stocks in the allocation board, the allocation board net bought Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 677 million yuan and sold Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) 1.317 billion yuan and 447 million yuan respectively. In terms of market value, the allocation disk last week mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in the sectors of Dianxin, military industry and media.
The activity of the two financial institutions has rebounded, but it is still at the low point since 2014. Last week (20207-20211), Liangrong sold a net 2.298 billion yuan, mainly Buying TMT, construction, new power, machinery and other sectors, and mainly selling finance, petroleum and petrochemical, nonferrous metals, coal, chemical and other sectors. The proportion of financing purchase in military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, consumer services, household appliances, food and beverage, computer, real estate and other sectors increased month on month, and the proportion of financing purchase in each sector was at a historical low. In terms of style, Liangrong only net buys the growth sector of the market.
Public offering positions gradually declined, individual investors continued to “bargain hunting”, and wide-based ETFs mainly held by institutions were still net redeemed. Last week (20207-20211), the A-share position of the active partial share fund gradually decreased. After excluding the factors of rise and fall, it mainly increased its position in the sectors of power and new technology, medicine, electronics, machinery and automobile, and mainly reduced its position in the sectors of consumer services, nonferrous metals, banking, coal, electric power and utilities, petrochemicals, media and building materials. Last week, ETFs mainly held by institutions were net redeemed, of which broad-based ETFs are still being net redeemed; The overall net subscription of ETFs mainly held by individuals means that individual investors may still be “bottom reading” funds. Among them, ETFs related to science and technology, new energy, medicine, military industry and other sectors are mainly net subscribed, and ETFs related to finance, real estate, consumption and other sectors are net redeemed. The consensus between the public offering and its debt side (individuals) is to buy medicine, new energy and other sectors, while there are differences in the military industry sector. For trend traders, Liangrong mainly buys TMT, construction, power innovation, machinery and other sectors, which is more inclined to growth style as a whole; Beishang trading net bought the value sectors represented by financial real estate, nonferrous metals, construction, building materials and electric power. Overall, in the industry dimension, the degree of market consensus has increased slightly. Among them, the degree of market consensus in the electronic sector is relatively high, followed by the degree of consensus in the new power, machinery and other sectors; In terms of style, there are obvious differences between domestic and foreign capital: northbound as a whole (allocation and trading) is more inclined to the value sector, while domestic capital (active partial stock fund and two financing) is more inclined to the growth sector.
Risk tip: measurement error.
