1. Overall configuration: without fear of external disturbance, go north and enter the site steadily. US inflation continued to reach a new high and the US dollar rose slightly. In terms of inflation, according to the statistics of the U.S. Bureau of labor statistics, the year-on-year increase of CPI in January expanded to 7.5%, while the year-on-year increase of core CPI reached 6%, both of which set a new historical record since 1982, and the upward speed exceeded expectations again. At the same time, the adjusted average hourly wage in January decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, falling for the 10th consecutive month. In terms of foreign exchange, non farm employment in January was much higher than expected, superimposed on the continuation of high inflation, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and shrink the table was strengthened again, and the US dollar index rose slightly, up about 0.59% last week.
The Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates is rising, and the “inverted V” trend of US stocks reappears. Since February, the market panic index has gradually dropped, global risk appetite has improved, and US stocks have recovered some of their losses in January. On February 10, the latest inflation data exceeded expectations again. Combined with the strong non farm payrolls data in January, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates rose, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose above the 2% mark. The Fed funds rate futures implied that the number of interest rate increases by the fed in 2022 would increase. The market predicted that the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March would exceed 50%, and the cumulative interest rate increase would be 100 basis points by the end of July, With the rise of the VIV index, the VIV index closed down again in the third week.
Trading sector and allocation sector work together to increase the allocation, and the capital going north flows back steadily. Overseas inflation continued to be high, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates rose, and the funds going north were not afraid of external disturbances. After the festival, they returned steadily, with a cumulative net inflow of about 10.744 billion yuan in a single week. In terms of fund type splitting, the trading disk turned into inflow, with a net inflow of about 6.58 billion yuan, while the allocation disk inflow accelerated, with a net inflow of about 4.509 billion yuan. At the same time, the funds going south maintained inflow for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative net inflow of about 4.165 billion yuan last week. As of February 11, the cumulative net inflow of northbound trading and configuration has reached 4.017 billion yuan and 25.783 billion yuan respectively this year.
2. Industry allocation: banks and non bank finance have been significantly increased. From an overall perspective, the net inflow of banks (+ 7.208 billion yuan), non bank finance (+ 5.915 billion yuan) and non-ferrous metals (+ 3.388 billion yuan) ranks first, with the largest outflow of power equipment (- 3.297 billion yuan), computers (- 3.195 billion yuan) and medical and biological (- 2.519 billion yuan);
From the perspective of fund type splitting: from the perspective of trading disk, the net inflow of non bank finance (+ 3.762 billion yuan) is the largest, while the net outflow of computer (- 2.436 billion yuan) is the largest; From the perspective of allocation disk, banks (+ 4.137 billion yuan) had the largest net inflow, while pharmaceutical and biological (- 2.321 billion yuan) had the largest net outflow.
3. Allocation of individual shares: Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) increased holdings ranked first, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) decreased holdings mostly. From an overall perspective, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (+ 3.131 billion yuan), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (+ 2.391 billion yuan) and Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (+ 2.235 billion yuan) rank first in net inflow; While Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (- 1.990 billion yuan), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (- 1.536 billion yuan) and Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (- 999 million yuan) mostly flowed out.
From the perspective of fund type splitting, from the perspective of trading disk, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (+ 2.036 billion yuan), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (+ 1.424 billion yuan) and Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (+ 1.185 billion yuan) rank first in net inflow; While Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (- 1.024 billion yuan), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (- 660 million yuan) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) (- 461 million yuan) mostly flowed out. From the perspective of configuration disk, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) (+ 1.911 billion yuan), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (+ 1.095 billion yuan) and Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (+ 1.050 billion yuan) rank first in net inflow; While Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (- 1.787 billion yuan), Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) (- 1.398 billion yuan) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (- 1.330 billion yuan) mostly flowed out.
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. Exchange rate depreciation risk.
