On February 11, the central bank released the monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2021 (hereinafter referred to as the goods administration report). We believe that this cargo policy report gives a clear signal of easing. On the occasion of the 20th National Congress in 2022, monetary easing is not only an economic need, but also a political need.
In the subsequent easing process, we will see the wide credit driven by credit supply; At the same time, we will also see the wide currency operation - further reducing reserve requirements and interest rates.
At present, China's demand is still weak and overseas currencies are tightened. Under this combination of internal cooling and external tightening, the two macro variables in the future deserve close attention, including the trend of real estate and the deduction of exchange rate.
Risk warning: the epidemic development exceeded expectations; Inadequate understanding of the central bank's monetary policy; Overseas monetary policy exceeded expectations.
