In January, the policy was launched, and social finance and credit exceeded expectations
In January, social finance increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year; The stock of social finance was 320.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year and M1 decreased by 1.9% year-on-year (excluding the influence of the wrong time of the Spring Festival, it increased by 2% year-on-year); The balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 202.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%; RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, a monthly statistical high, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year.
The central economic work conference in December 2021 stressed that “stability” is the top priority of economic work in 2022, macro policies should be “stable and effective”, and policy efforts should be “appropriately advanced”. Since the second half of last year, the central bank has continued to implement loose monetary policy, and money prices have fallen, which has played an important supporting role in social financing and credit growth in January. The proactive fiscal policy was gradually launched in January, infrastructure investment accelerated, real estate risks gradually resolved and entered a benign growth channel, and the social finance and credit structure was optimized.
Credit and bonds are the main sources of social finance increment
In January, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 380.6 billion yuan year-on-year, which is the main source of the increase in social finance. Followed by government bonds and corporate bonds, the net financing of government bonds was 602.6 billion yuan, an increase of 358.9 billion yuan year-on-year; The net financing of corporate bonds was 579.9 billion yuan, an increase of 188.2 billion yuan year-on-year.
On January 20, the central bank lowered the 1-year and 5-year LPR loan interest rates by 5 basis points simultaneously, with a small range but obvious policy intention. The reduction of the cost of funds and the expectation of credit easing will stimulate capital’s support for the real economy, and improve the profitability of small and micro enterprises together with the tax policy of tax reduction and fee reduction. At present, the central bank is still cautious in the use of interest rate policy, and there is still sufficient space for the regulation of monetary policy.
Resident credit rebounded, but still weak, and is expected to continue to grow in the first quarter
Affected by the increase of residents’ medium and long-term loans, the increase of residents’ credit rebounded steadily in January, reaching a new high since June 21, but it was still weak compared with the same period last year. In January, 843 billion yuan of new residential loans were added, an increase of 471.4 billion yuan over the previous month and 427 billion yuan less than the same period last year; Medium and long-term loans to residents reached 742.4 billion yuan, an increase of 386.6 billion yuan over the previous month and a decrease of 202.4 billion yuan over the same period last year.
On August 8, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission made it clear that the loans related to affordable rental housing projects were not included in the concentration management of real estate loans, and the precise regulation of the real estate market was further improved. On the premise of fully implementing the policy of “housing without speculation”, the real estate market has gradually returned to a benign direction. The multi land provident fund policy supports the reasonable housing demand of residents, and the scale of residents’ credit is expected to continue to rise in the first quarter.
Risk tips
The effect of policy implementation was not as expected, the epidemic situation deteriorated, international relations deteriorated, and local debt risks erupted intensively.
