Macro categories:
On February 14, the finance ministers of the group of seven said that they would pay close attention to the situation in Ukraine and Russia. The top priority is to support the efforts to ease the situation. However, any further military aggression by Russia against Ukraine will receive a rapid, coordinated and powerful response. We need to be vigilant against the risk of subsequent mutual sanctions between the two sides, or further push up global energy prices.
Recent macro events have been intensive, the most important of which is the negative impact of us austerity expectations and the risk of Russia Ukraine hot war on risky assets, especially US stocks. Looking back on the last round of interest rate hike cycle, in the game stage of interest rate hike expectation (the first interest rate hike - the landing of interest rate hike), the strength of interest rate hike expectation is accompanied by the strength of US dollar index, and the emerging market stock index, gold, crude oil and CRB composite index are adjusted (at least the rise and fall performance at the monthly level). After the fact of raising interest rates, the US bond interest rate trend rose, the US dollar index peaked and fell, and the emerging market stock index and bulk commodities stabilized and rebounded. The reduction of the balance sheet is obviously bad for financial assets. Since 2007, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with financial assets, a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rates as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 0.68; However, the correlation between the Fed's balance sheet and commodities was low, recording 0.56.
Secondly, the signal of China's steady growth continues to strengthen. In January 2022, the stock of social finance increased by 10.5% year-on-year, with a previous value of 10.3%, but the RMB loan in January increased by about 11.5% year-on-year, with a previous value of 11.6%. Structurally, short-term loans and bill financing contribute more increment, and China's credit still needs to be further developed. At the micro level, the issuance of special bonds since February is low (less than 100 billion), the sales of excavators and heavy trucks are still low in January, and the acquisition of land for commercial housing in China still fell by more than 50% year-on-year in January. Multiple forward-looking data show that it still takes time for credit to be transmitted to entities, real estate is still at the bottom stage, infrastructure is still at the power storage stage, and the power will gradually appear in the future. In the follow-up, we also need to pay attention to the risks of inflation control policies of various countries. Overseas, mainly the Iranian nuclear negotiations and the reversal of the situation between Ukraine and Russia, may bring the risk of rapid adjustment of crude oil chain commodities, while China needs to pay attention to the risk of more regulation policies issued by the national development and Reform Commission.
Generally speaking, the release of daily credit and social finance in January may indicate that the probability of substantial monetary easing in February has decreased. In addition, the national development and Reform Commission has strongly suppressed energy and iron ore inflation, and the release rate of special bonds in February is also lower than expected. Our short-term strategy of reducing domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal) is neutral; As the two sessions window approaches, and Tianliang social finance supports the enterprise's profit expectation, we still maintain the view that the shareholding index is bargain hunting and long; Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the bullish logic based on supply bottleneck and cost transmission is still relatively smooth; At present, the crude oil chain is more dependent on the favorable situation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, so we need to be vigilant against the adjustment risk of mitigation of subsequent events; At the precious metals level, as the US CPI in January hit a new high since the 1980s, supported by the logic of overseas stagflation and superimposed the risk of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, we raised our precious metals strategy in the short term to bargain hunting and long.
Strategy (strength ranking): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (soybean, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
