China's financial data in January exceeded market expectations; US inflation rose more than expected in January; The central bank issued the fourth quarter monetary policy implementation report. The order of asset allocation of major categories: bulk > bonds > stocks > currencies.
Review of macro highlights
Economic data: in January, social finance increased by 6.17 trillion yuan and credit increased by 4.2 trillion yuan. M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year.
Highlights: the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have made it clear that the loans related to affordable rental housing projects are not included in the concentration management of real estate loans; The national development and Reform Commission successively interviewed iron ore information enterprises and coal enterprises on the rapid rise of prices; The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US Ministry of Commerce's inclusion of 33 Chinese entities in the "unverified list" of export control; During the 7-day Spring Festival holiday in 2022, the number of Chinese tourists decreased by 2.0% year-on-year, and China's tourism revenue decreased by 3.9% year-on-year; The central bank issued the report on the implementation of China's monetary policy in the fourth quarter of 2021; The CSRC issued the provisions on the supervision of the interconnection of depositary receipts business between domestic and foreign stock exchanges.
Asset performance review
Stock market differentiation and bond market adjustment. This week, the CSI 300 index rose 0.82%, and the CSI 300 stock index futures rose 0.63%; Coking coal futures rose 6.09% this week, and the main iron ore contract rose 4.51% this week; The expected yield of financial management of joint-stock banks was flat at 1.92%, and the 7-day annualized yield of yu'e Bao fell 2bp to 2.03%; The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose 9bp to 2.79%, and the active 10-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.85% this week.
Asset allocation suggestions
Asset allocation: bulk > bonds > stocks > currencies. This week, driven by the higher than expected inflation in the United States in January, the market raised the expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike in March, pushing the ten-year US bond yield to exceed 2%. Different from the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, the European Central Bank will not raise interest rates before the fourth quarter, and China's monetary policy is in the channel of interest rate reduction. Therefore, under the expectation of global economic recovery, the rise of US bond yield will significantly improve its attraction to international capital, The most affected region is Europe, which is also plagued by high inflation and has a large reduction in economic growth expectations. RMB assets benefit from the relatively solid foundation of China's economic recovery, relatively mild inflation trend, marginal loose monetary policy and active fiscal policy, and maintain the view of optimistic about RMB assets.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The global covid-19 epidemic has expanded its impact.
