Steady growth expectations continued to strengthen, and the black series rebounded collectively
China's soda ash market closed up more than 2% on Thursday, while most of China's soda ash products rose by more than 2%, while China's soda ash market rose by more than 2%; Base metals rose across the board, with international copper up more than 4%, Shanghai copper up nearly 4% and Shanghai zinc up more than 2%; Most of the black series rose, with iron ore rising by more than 3%, while thermal coal and coking coal falling by more than 2%; Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) was mixed, with soybean 2 and soybean meal up more than 2%, and vegetable oil, vegetable oil and vegetable oil down; Precious metals all rose.
Hot comments: after a day of adjustment, commodities rebounded collectively again on Thursday. The strong fundamental support is the main reason: 1) there are many favorable factors in the current macro environment, China's steady growth policy has accelerated the front force, and the overseas economy has maintained recovery; 2) With the end of the Spring Festival holiday and the passing of the peak period of large-scale rain and snow, China's infrastructure and real estate will gradually return to work; 3) Loose policies, slow down credit, and the overall or slight recovery of the real estate market have brought some support to the downstream demand; 4) The geopolitical crisis in Russia and Ukraine, abnormal weather changes and other factors have exacerbated the concern of insufficient supply of energy and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) . However, the US CPI soared to 7.5% in January, which almost determines that the Fed will raise interest rates in March. The current disagreement may lie in the magnitude and frequency of interest rate hikes, which may bring new disturbance to the trend of commodities.
1. Black building materials: the fundamental support is strong, and black rebounds strongly again.
In January, China's credit soared, indicating that the steady growth measures are accelerating the implementation and taking effect, stimulating market sentiment, and risk appetite has rebounded significantly. At the same time, data released by several institutions show that the accumulated stock of steel during the Spring Festival is lower than expected, and the problem of supply shortage is still prominent. However, on the one hand, the production restriction measures have been tightened in many places in the north, and the production restriction of steel mills has been strengthened. On the other hand, the national development and Reform Commission has successively held symposiums on ensuring the supply of iron ore and coal, requiring all efforts to ensure the supply and stabilize the market price. Therefore, although the fundamental support is strong, the policy intervention is heating up obviously, with long and short factors. The price of black disk fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to wait and see for the time being.
In the medium term, the central bank will start a new round of easing cycle, and the fiscal policy will also be strengthened in advance. At the same time, the supervision requires the supplementary submission of a number of special bond projects, which will weaken the impact of the superimposed epidemic and rainy and snowy weather, and the infrastructure and real estate will gradually return to work. In addition, with the continuous development of steady growth, real estate will show more soft landing, and investment demand is expected to bottom out in the second quarter. The most pessimistic stage of steel demand may have passed, and the demand for steel in the peak season is worth looking forward to.
2. Base metals: inventories have been greatly reduced, and copper prices have rebounded significantly.
Fed officials deliberately reassured the market, saying that they expected to raise interest rates by 25bp each time, and the high level of the US dollar index that suppressed the trend of metals fell. Superimposed on LME, copper inventories continued to decline sharply, and copper futures soared sharply. The US dollar's CPI may soar again to 1.5% on Thursday night. From the perspective of fundamentals, on the one hand, the TC index rose slightly, and the import business of tons of bagged copper concentrate was resumed successively at Erlianhot railway port. The reopening of the port alleviated the tension at China's mine end in the early stage, and it is expected that the supply of China's Copper mine end will be relatively abundant after the festival; On the other hand, China's steady growth policy will accelerate the advance force, and the old and new infrastructure will become an important starting point. It is expected that there will be strong support for the consumption demand of copper. At present, the global copper inventory continues to go, which brings strong support to the copper price and is expected to maintain a strong shock.
Precious metals: the US CPI in January rose to 7.5% higher than expected, which means that it is almost certain that the Fed will raise interest rates in March, and may raise interest rates every month in the future. The contraction will also begin after the interest rate increase. US bond interest rates rose above 2%, the US dollar index soared, and gold may be under pressure again.
3. Energy and chemical industry: OPEC's production increase is lower than expected, and the oil price is running at a high level.
The monthly report released by OPEC shows that with the strong recovery of the global economy from covid-19 epidemic and the benefits of tourism and other industries, its strong forecast of global oil demand in 2022 still has upward potential. OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 4.15 million barrels per day this year, which is the same as the previous month's estimate. In addition, OPEC's oil production increased by only 64000 barrels per day in January, which did not reach the 254000 barrels per day of the production increase plan. International oil prices continued to run at a high level.
Looking back, the impact of Omicron variant on crude oil demand is relatively limited at present. High frequency data show that the traffic congestion index and airport security inspection personnel in the United States are at a high level, reflecting that the consumption of refined oil has not been affected; In addition, the supply recovery of some OPEC oil producing countries was not as expected, especially the smaller oil producing countries could not increase production, and the crude oil market remained tense. However, once the Iran nuclear agreement is restarted, Iran's crude oil will quickly enter the international market, and the momentum of further upward impact of crude oil will be weakened. We still need to focus on the impact of geopolitics, Iran nuclear negotiations and OPEC + oil production policy on both ends of crude oil supply and demand.
4. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) : the fundamental support is still strong, and the space for oil adjustment is limited.
Meidou: USDA released the monthly report, reducing the soybean production in Brazil and Argentina and reducing the soybean inventory at the end of the world period. However, the output and inventory data are higher than those expected by many institutions and markets in South America. At present, the weather in South America is still in drought. The superimposed USDA report shows that the export demand of us beans is better, and the price of us beans in CBOT may still be supported in the short term.
Soybean oil: the monitoring shows that before the festival, China's soybean crushing volume rebounded significantly, and the output of soybean oil increased. However, the downstream enterprises continued to prepare goods, picked up goods faster, and the soybean oil inventory continued to decline slightly. It is expected that in the future, with the increase of inbound volume, the soybean crushing volume will continue to increase, the demand after the holiday will enter the off-season, and the soybean oil inventory may stop falling and turn up.
Palm oil: sppoma data show that from February 1 to 5, the output of horse palm decreased by 32.85% month on month. Horse palm entered the production reduction season, and the output continued to decrease. In addition, according to SGS data, from February 1 to 10, the export volume of horse palm decreased by 6.5% month on month, which was significantly narrowed, indicating that the export demand is improving.
With the expected resurgence of accumulated reserves and the correction of high crude oil, the short-term support of oil and fat has weakened. However, there are many difficulties in the growth of global oil production and inventory reconstruction. Low production, low inventory and high basis difference are still the main dependence of oil bulls, and the space for downward adjustment is expected to be limited.
