Events
On February 12, Xinhuanetco.Ltd(603888) reported that the China food and Drug Administration approved Pfizer's covid-19 virus treatment drug import registration conditionally on February 11.
Comments
Recently, the edge of epidemic control has been relaxed, and the progress of covid-19 specific drugs has been superimposed, so we are optimistic about the main line of post epidemic recovery. 1) There are frequent signs of marginal relaxation: China UK test to resume direct flights, Guangxi plans to resume more than 15 ASEAN passenger routes within three years, and Yunnan plans to resume inter provincial team tourism from February 9, 2022; 2) the specific drugs were approved for import registration: the approved Pfizer COVID-19 oral drug Paxlovid can be used to treat mild to moderate New Coronavirus pneumonia patients with severe risk factors. The storage conditions are easy to meet and can be taken at home, and the convenience is better.
The epidemic control tends to be normalized, and there are signs of marginal relaxation in some areas. Superimposed on the extensive vaccination rate and the progress of covid-19 specific drugs, we are optimistic about the main line of recovery in the post epidemic era. According to the damage size, valuation level, sector texture and risk ranking, the following sectors are recommended:
1. Scenic spot: natural landscape assets and scarcity are prominent. If there is no epidemic affecting the stable operation and good cash flow, the epidemic is the biggest risk. Previously, the valuation has been seriously affected by the epidemic, which will benefit from the recovery after the epidemic to the greatest extent. Focus on the leaders such as Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) .
2. Outbound tourism: the recovery order of the epidemic situation in China is better than that in the world. It is expected that the recovery of outbound tourism will be later than that in China. Scenic spots and outbound tourism are more flexible, but the risk of outbound tourism is higher than that in scenic spots, so it is ranked relatively backward, focusing on Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , etc.
3. Tax exemption: under the repeated travel restrictions caused by the epidemic in China, the passenger flow in Hainan has been greatly affected, directly resulting in the decline of the scale of offline tax exemption in Hainan and the increase of the cost rate under the cost rigidity. At the same time, the annual target pressure indirectly led to the increase of discount and the increase of online proportion, which further affected the profit level. The long-term growth momentum of tax exemption in Hainan is sufficient. Under the same discount level, the elasticity of income recovery is higher than that of passenger flow. After the recovery of the epidemic, the restrictions on passenger flow in Hainan are relaxed, and the elasticity of offline income recovery is large. In the case of narrowing the discount, the sales of the Spring Festival will increase well, the online share is relatively low, the structure is good, and the profitability will be improved accordingly. Focus on China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) . It has a solid leading position, benefits most from the recovery of the industry, and has many new supply points in 2022.
4. Catering: the 2021h2 epidemic has repeatedly led to pressure on the catering industry as a whole. With the recovery of the epidemic, it is expected to usher in marginal improvement. Some catering brands recovered well during the Spring Festival, and the business format of small pubs performed more brightly, reflecting the strong demand. At present, the profit side of some catering companies with good single store model and stable store expansion will continue to recover in 2022. At present, the valuation level has entered a reasonable range, and the recovery of same store data brought by the epidemic recovery is expected to be a catalyst. Focus on Helens, jiumaojiu, Naixue's tea and Haidilao.
5. Hotels: since 2019, when the hotel industry reached the bottom of the last cycle, it has started the upward cycle, but the recovery degree is hidden due to the impact of the epidemic pit. When there is still sporadic epidemic in China in 2021q2, the performance of leading hotels has exceeded the pre epidemic level. Focus on leading hotels Huazhu group, Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) . During the epidemic period, leading brands seize the opportunity of clearing the industry and continue to expand stores. After the epidemic subsides, they are expected to enjoy the double boost of growth brought by the superposition of upward cycles and opening stores.
6. Department stores & supermarkets: they are optimistic about the value of offline retail channels, the leading high-quality supply chain and enrich the growth potential of retail formats. They focus on Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) (high quality) and Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) (digital and intelligent empowerment decline, and the improvement period is expected).
Risk tip: the economic downturn inhibits optional consumption, and the epidemic situation further worsens, impacting terminal consumption. It focuses on the company's performance that is less than expected, the expansion speed of new business types and new stores is less than expected, and the industry competition continues to intensify.
