Market view week
In the first week after the Spring Festival holiday in 2022, A-Shares continued to perform the differentiation market. The value style represented by SSE 50 is relatively dominant, mainly benefiting from the higher than expected 6 trillion new social finance data in January, strengthening steady growth and wide credit expectation, and the upstream cycle industry and financial sector increased by more than 5% in a single week; The growth style represented by the gem index continued to adjust to digest the overvalued value. The risk appetite of the sector was mainly suppressed by factors such as the US bond interest rate breaking 2%, and the NASDAQ continued to fluctuate and adjust.
In the short term, we believe that the combined punches show that the end of the policy has come and the end of the market will gradually approach. The monetary policy implementation report in the fourth quarter once again strengthens the urgency expectation of policy development, wide currency and wide credit. However, considering that China's downward pressure is still great, and the continued weakness of real estate and consumption may drag down the economic inertia decline in the first quarter, the A-share market still needs time to consolidate. In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to the structural opportunities of the stable growth sector and the post epidemic recovery industry; Among them, since October last year, the new government bond financing of social finance has increased year-on-year for four consecutive months, and the recovery expectation of infrastructure investment has been continuously strengthened. The development of infrastructure is expected to drive investment opportunities in raw materials and builders in the industrial chain. The improvement of overall credit expectation will help to boost the prosperity of the financial sector; Transportation, wine tourism and other sectors are expected to benefit from the liberalization of travel scenes.
Steady growth is the primary goal of the current monetary policy, and the policy force is expected to maintain a moderately advanced rhythm. On February 11, the central bank issued the report on the implementation of China's monetary policy in the fourth quarter of 2021, focusing on the following signals: first, the general tone was further clarified to stabilize growth. The central bank proposed that China's economic development was under triple pressure. Compared with the third quarter report, the policy guideline changed from "doing well in cross cycle regulation" to "strengthening cross cycle regulation", At the same time, it emphasizes "giving full play to the dual functions of total amount and structure"; Moreover, in the discussion on the macro leverage ratio in column 3, it was proposed that "China's macro leverage ratio has decreased steadily, creating space for the future financial system to continue to increase its support for the real economy". The overall intention to stabilize growth is clear, monetary easing is still possible, and promoting the growth of total credit and structural optimization is the direction of force. Second, the central bank has become more concerned about global high inflation and a new round of overseas reduction cycle. This report again mentions not to engage in "flood irrigation", and changes the "focus on me" from the previous general policy tone to the description of exchange rate policy, which may imply that the Fed's interest rate hike has a greater impact on China's policy, and China's monetary easing needs to be launched earlier; At the same time, the report has increased the discussion on global high inflation, suggesting the need to prevent the risk of inflation expectations falling off anchor. We believe that it is necessary to prevent overseas inflation from exceeding expectations and forcing monetary policy to accelerate tightening, which may amplify the volatility of capital market and disturb China's monetary policy. Third, the attitude towards real estate has been restrained in maintaining stability. The report still continues to emphasize the positioning of "housing without speculation", and insists that real estate is not used as a short-term means to stimulate the economy. Structural support lies in increasing financial support for Housing leasing and meeting the reasonable housing needs of home buyers.
