At present, the risk appetite of A-Shares is low and the defensive atmosphere is strong. On the one hand, it is affected by the increased volatility of US stocks, on the other hand, it is affected by the increased performance differences of heavy positions such as new energy. The upward inflection point of short-term A shares is greatly affected by US stocks, and the medium-term is related to credit environment and performance uncertainty. 1) First, the core factors affecting the US stock market may gradually shift from policy and event shocks to performance driven. Driven by strong performance, US stocks stabilized and rebounded, or created a more friendly external environment for short-term A shares, especially the stabilization of technology stocks that had been significantly adjusted. 2) Secondly, China's wide credit environment continues to be verified, as well as the landing of uncertain performance. These factors are expected to drive A-Shares upward in the medium term and out of the independent market.
Under the defensive idea, the underestimated value is the best choice, and the small and medium-sized growth moment will be ushered in from the defensive to offensive stage. Since the beginning of the year, under the weak market, the relative return of the sector with undervalued value superimposed with stable growth and other policy expectations has been obvious. Under the defensive idea, the undervalued value is preferred, but in the subsequent context of "worry free inside and trouble free outside", when A-Shares change from defensive to offensive, the undervalued value sector is difficult to have relative returns, even the infrastructure sector with stable growth attribute. Because historically, the relative return of the infrastructure sector is not strongly related to the industry roe. Moreover, the increase in the growth rate of infrastructure investment is also difficult to be reflected in the roe of listed companies. One belt, one road, is the main reason for the huge excess revenue in the history of the infrastructure sector. The inflection point of the growth curve of the new energy sector is still difficult to see in the short term, and the medium and long-term logic is difficult to prove. The sector continues to adjust under the current negative capital feedback, and may usher in a deterministic recovery after the landing of performance uncertainty.
Market view: the market has entered a stage from defensive to offensive. Gradually eliminate overseas constraints. After the expected full pricing of interest rate increase / reduction, the superimposed earnings continued to maintain strong growth, the impact of policies on US stocks may be gradually passivated, and the trend of performance driven stabilization and recovery of US stocks is becoming increasingly clear. In addition, China US monetary policy is in the differentiation stage, and China's policy dominated by China is expected to drive A-Shares to deduce an independent market. There are no obvious negative factors in China. On the one hand, the downward performance this year has become the consensus expectation of the market and will not become the core factor leading the market. In addition, the performance trend is expected to be low before and high after, and it is expected to usher in a performance inflection point in the second half of the year; On the other hand, China's current policy is also in the stage of continuous easing. With the interest rate cut and the decline of LPR, credit has gradually stabilized and rebounded, and the trend of wide credit is expected to continue.
Industry configuration: focus on the stabilization and recovery of the new energy sector, layout TMT hard technology on the left, pay attention to the short-term and fast opportunities of securities companies, and gradually pay attention to the dilemma reversal opportunities such as airports, restaurants and hotels
1) at present, there is no significant change in the fundamentals and policies of heavy positions of new energy and other institutions, which has stabilized and rebounded or is an event with high probability. According to the recently disclosed annual report forecast, companies in the sector have generally achieved high growth. Although some investors are worried that the market has too high expectations for the performance growth of the new energy sector, there is a potential risk that the performance is lower than expected. But at present, the probability of smoothly passing the performance test is high.
2) TMT is the sector with large expectation difference, especially the sector in TMT that is biased towards hard technology, such as communication, computer, etc. First, the industry boom remained stable and upward; Secondly, the valuation of the sector is basically at the bottom of history; In addition, policies such as new infrastructure may become market catalytic factors. It is suggested to actively layout the core industrial chain: automobile intelligent industrial chain, 5gtob end application, industrial digitization, Huawei industrial chain, etc.
3) remain relatively optimistic about the future market, and the brokerage sector is expected to perform a beta market in the upward stage of the market. However, it should be pointed out that although the fundamentals of securities companies are relatively strong, the industry performance is closely related to the fluctuation of market risk appetite.
4) with the approval of Pfizer covid-19 oral specific drug in China, the clinical progress of domestic covid-19 oral drug is superimposed. With the warming of temperature, the evolution of epidemic trend and the changes of China's prevention and control policies deserve special attention. At present, we can gradually pay attention to the sectors that are expected to reverse their plight, such as airports, restaurants and hotels.
Risk tips: the economic recovery is not as expected, the macro liquidity contraction risk, and the overseas black swan event
